Biden predicts Russian invasion of Ukraine, but says ‘minor incursion’ may prompt discussion over consequences
“I’m not so sure he is certain what he is going to do. My guess is he will move in. He has to do something,” Biden said, describing a leader searching for relevance in a post-Soviet world. “He is trying to find his place in the world between China and the west.”
Biden’s prediction of an invasion is the firmest acknowledgment to date the United States fully expects Putin to move after amassing 100,000 troops along the Ukraine border.
After speaking with Putin twice last month, Biden said he believed his Russian counterpart had a good understanding of the economic sanctions he was preparing to enact.
“He’s never seen sanctions like the ones I promised will be imposed if he moves, number one,” he said, adding the level of punishment would depend on what Russia’s invasion looks like. “It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion and we end up having to fight about what to do and not do, et cetera.”
“But if they actually do what they’re capable of doing with the forces amassed on the border, it is going to be a disaster for Russia if they further invade Ukraine. And that our allies and partners are ready to impose severe cost and significant harm on Russia and the Russian economy,” he said.
That includes limiting Russian transactions in US financial institutions — “anything that involves dollar denominations,” Biden said.
He also warned Russian lives would be lost in an invasion, along with potential Ukrainian casualties.
“The cost of going into Ukraine in terms of physical loss of life for the Russians — they’ll be able to prevail over time but it’s going to be heavy,” he said. “It’s going to be real. It’s going to be consequential. Putin has a stark choice. Either de-escalation or diplomacy. Confrontation and consequences.”
“This is not all just a cake walk for Russia,” he went on. “Militarily, they have overwhelming superiority. And as it relates to Ukraine, they’ll pay a stiff price immediately, near term, medium term and long term if they do it.”
Biden speculated Putin was not seeking “any full-blown war,” but said he did believe he was looking for some type of confrontation.
“Do I think he’ll test the west? Test the United States and NATO as significantly as he can? Yes, I think he will. But I think he’ll pay a serious and dear price for it.”
“He doesn’t think now will cost him what it’s going to cost him,” he said. “And I think he’ll regret having done it.”
