Local Elections Scotland 2021: Will Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP miss Holyrood majority by ONE seat?

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The Liberal Democrats became the early frontrunners as the Scottish Parliament election count got underway today – by holding a safe seat in the first result of the day.

MSP Liam McArthur won the island’s Holyrood constituency with a majority of almost 4,000 ahead of the SNP in second place. 

However the SNP has since held seven seats, albeit with various swings towards the pro-union parties. 

In Banffshire and Buchan Coast, Karen Adam’s majority was slashed from 23 per cent to 2.3 per cent, with a swing of 10.3 per cent to the Scottish Conservatives.

It was the first blood in an election in which polls suggest Nicola Sturgeon could miss out on an SNP majority at Holyrood by just a single seat. 

As the process of counting Scottish parliamentary votes began, experts predicted that the First Minister’s chances of wielding enough power to demand a second independence referendum hang in the balance.

She is looking for an overall SNP majority of 65 seats or more to boost her argument that a fresh vote should be held, despite the overwhelming No vote in 2014.

Although she will be able to govern in a coalition with the pro-independence Greens if the SNP get fewer than 65 seats, it would dramatically weaken her argument that there is huge support for her plan.

Opposition party leaders were confident that they had managed to mobilise the pro-Union vote to stave off the threat of separation from the rest of the UK.

Professor Sir John Curtice, Scotland’s leading pollster, said the prospect of an SNP majority in the Scottish parliament remains at ’50/50′, with polls predicting it could miss out by just one seat. 

He said the Tories are in a strong position to take second place at Holyrood despite Labour’s Anas Sarwar ‘breathing down’ their necks. 

Sir John said: ‘Support for independence is now back at the level that it was before the pandemic. Indeed, polling by both YouGov and Lord Ashcroft suggest the mood last summer that an independent Scotland might have handled the health crisis more effectively has disappeared.’ 

Despite the pandemic and treacherous weather in some areas, turnout for ‘the most important election since devolution’ was said to be strong.

Last night, pro-Union parties said their vote was holding up in key areas, with the hope they could thwart Miss Sturgeon’s bid to get a parliamentary majority.

Votes in some 46 of the 73 constituency seats will be counted from about 9am today, with the first results expected from noon.

It is anticipated all 46 should be declared by Friday evening.

Then, from about 9am on Saturday, the remaining 27 constituency seats will be counted, after which the regional seats will be allocated.

Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s Justice Secretary and a candidate for the Glasgow Pollok constituency, said there has been high turnout at many polling stations in his constituency and around the country.

Saying the SNP were feeling buoyant, Mr Yousaf said: ‘There is people who will take a high turnout as a positive sign for them, but I suspect every party will say that.’

He added: ‘I think the SNP’s going to have a good night, but I think other parties also I can see there’s an uptick in their vote too.

‘So really it’s going to come down to the wire in some seats I suspect.’ 

Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, there is a staggered tallying up of ballots for the 2021 Holyrood election, with all results expected to be declared by Saturday evening.

Normally, counting begins immediately after the polls close at 10pm and continues overnight, with results confirmed in the early hours.

But the need for social distancing among count staff has meant votes will be tallied from Friday.

This year’s election, while conducted under the constraints of coronavirus rules, is also considered to be one of the most important since the Scottish Parliament opened in 1999.

With the SNP set for another five years in government, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will no doubt ramp up the pressure on Westminster to grant the powers for another vote on Scottish independence.

Her opponents in the Tory, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties have stressed the importance of focusing on Scotland’s recovery from coronavirus instead

But the SNP leader and her party have said no referendum will be held until after the immediate health crisis is over, and they insist powers gained through independence would actually improve the recovery in Scotland.

Ms Sturgeon has said another pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament, including the Greens and Alba Party seats, should be enough to let Scots vote again on whether they want to leave the UK.

On Thursday, two voters in Glasgow North West said they were temporarily turned away from a polling station because a ballot box was ‘too full’.

Nadeem Basharat, 37, said he and his partner Joanne Basharat, 34, went to Jordanhill Parish Church polling station at around 8.30pm and were told they could not cast their vote at the time.

He said he was told ballot box 52 was too full and he was told to ‘come back by 10pm’, by a steward who was ‘quite vague’.

He told the PA news agency: ‘We went home and waited and got there for about 9.30pm and managed to get in, ballot box 52 was still pretty full, like it had just been pushed down and not a new box.

‘It looked like there were people there who didn’t manage to vote first time around.’

A spokesman for Glasgow’s returning officer said: ‘The sheer size of the regional paper meant some ballot boxes became full. We were able to deliver replacement boxes, but in this case some voters were asked to wait outside before voting.

‘The presiding officer is confident that all voters who were asked to wait were ultimately able to vote.’