Analysis: The dark cloud hanging over all this Covid optimism

And he’s, largely, right! As CNN’s Ryan Struyk noted Friday morning: “The United States is now averaging 1,482 deaths per day from coronavirus, the lowest daily death toll since November 30, according to data from CNN and Johns Hopkins University.” Struyk also calculates that the 7-day rolling average of cases is at 53,494 as of Thursday, less than half the total we were seeing in the United States just a month ago.

And people are starting to feel much better about where we are with the virus. In a new CNN national poll, almost 8 in 10 Americans (77%) say the worst of the pandemic is now behind us — the highest that number has been in the last year by a massive margin. (The previous high was 51%.) Republicans are the most likely to say the worst is behind us (84%) while Democrats are the least likely (74%).

See, here’s the thing about rampant optimism in the face of a still-contagious virus: It could well lead to behavior that we know could inhibit our ability to get back to normal. And, well, it’s already happening.

Biden, to his credit, warned against letting down our collective guard. “Conditions can change,” he said on Thursday night. “The scientists have made clear that things may get worse again as new variants of the virus spread. We’ve got work to do to ensure that everyone has confidence in the safety and effectiveness of all three vaccines.”

Now, it’s possible all of our optimism — and the moves that it’s fueling — won’t cause another surge or even a major bump-up in the case numbers in the states where rules are being significantly loosened.

“The early coronavirus mistakes were mostly mistakes of excessive optimism. But that’s not the only possible kind of public-health mistake,” he tweeted. “And at our current stage in the pandemic, undue pessimism has become as much of a problem as undue optimism….Difficult truths can sometimes be a vital public-health tool. But so can optimism. Optimism can help people to get through tough times and make sacrifices, in the belief that better days are ahead.”

I absolutely hope that Leonhardt is right. But the past year has taught me to always temper my optimism when it comes to our ongoing fight with Covid-19 — especially because so many Americans have been (and are) resistant to doing the few basic things we know help us mitigate the spread. Overconfidence is not our friend in this fight.