Analysis: A third vaccine will bring us one step closer to normal
Protection against severe cases and death is important. “That’s probably the most important part of this vaccine or any of the Covid vaccines is the protection against hospitalizations and severe disease and dying,” said Dr. Paul Goepfert, professor of medicine in the Division of Infectious Disease at the University of Alabama at Birmingham and director of the Alabama Vaccine Research Clinic.
With more vaccines coming online and more and more Americans surviving Covid-19, the next question is when and how the country and the world will reach “herd immunity.”
What is herd immunity? This is “the point at which enough people are protected against a disease that it cannot spread through the population.”
The numbers:
- More than 66 million vaccine shots have been administered, according to the latest federal data
- Nearly 8% of the US population is fully vaccinated
- Vaccine manufacturers say the US should have enough vaccine supply to cover everyone by June
- More than 25% of the population may already have natural immunity after previous infection
Fine print. New variants threaten progress, potentially lessening protection offered by vaccines and skirting some degree of natural immunity. Vaccine hesitancy may also create some limitations.
The rest of her report is a survey of experts and what they expect based on the current situation. I’ll include one answer to her last question.
What’s the bottom line? Dr. Arturo Casadevall, chair of molecular microbiology and immunology at Johns Hopkins University, told McPhillips: No one in this world can tell you what percent of protection is needed or what date it will happen by. My gut is positive, and I do think 2021 is going to be a better year than 2020. Assuming we don’t have a variant that forces new lockdowns, I think the second half of this year will look different. We may lift restrictions in the fall, or maybe a little earlier if the rapid decline continues and the curve stays down.
