Covid UK: Daily infections fall to 19,202 with 1,322 deaths
Don’t get your hopes up about lockdown being eased in March: Chris Whitty says NHS will still be under pressure once the over-70s are jabbed – as UK’s Covid cases and deaths continue to fall with 19,202 infections and 1,322 fatalities
- Department of Health figures show both case and deaths counts have dropped 25 per cent week-on-week
- It was also revealed that 10million vulnerable Britons have now had their first dose of a coronavirus vaccine
- A surveillance study revealed today around one in seven people in England had antibodies by mid-January
Professor Chris Whitty tonight hinted that draconian lockdown curbs will need to remain in place beyond March even if the four most vulnerable groups have been vaccinated.
England’s chief medical officer said he expects virus deaths to come down ‘significantly’ when everyone over 70 has had their first dose but warned the impact will be ‘much smaller’ on hospital rates.
His comments came as official figures showed coronavirus deaths and cases are continuing to fall, with 19,202 infections and 1,322 fatalities recorded today — down 25 per cent week-on-week.
Despite lockdown thwarting Britain’s second wave and bringing the outbreak under control, there are still 35,000 patients in hospital with Covid — far higher than the 20,000 at the peak last spring.
Professor Whitty said the NHS will continue to remain under pressure until the six remaining priority groups, which include everyone over 50, are given their first shot of vaccine. He told a Downing Street press conference tonight: ‘The number of people in hospital with Covid has now gone down from its peak, quite noticeably.
‘But as the Prime Minister said, there are still a very large number of people in hospital, and more people than there were in the first peak in April last year. So this is still a very major problem, but it is one that is heading the right way.’
His comments were echoed by Boris Johnson who warned that the level of infection is still ‘forbiddingly high’ and that it is too soon to relax current restrictions. The Prime Minister promised that he will set out a ‘route map’ out of lockdown on February 22, when he said scientists will have a better idea of how effective the vaccines are.
But Professor Whitty’s comments put to bed hopes of any significant easing of restrictions by then, despite the UK being on track to hit its ambitious goal of vaccinating the 14million most vulnerable Brits by February 15. 10million people have already had their first dose, it was revealed today.
Mr Johnson was also downbeat about the prospect of getting a first vaccine dose to all UK adults by May, describing it as ‘very optimistic’ and ‘probably beyond what is possible’ given supply constraints. And he insisted schools will not reopen before March 8 despite fierce backlash from his backbenches, warning that returning to classrooms too soon could force the UK ‘into reverse’.
Chris Whitty tonight hinted that draconian lockdown curbs will need to remain in place beyond March even if the four most vulnerable groups have been vaccinated — as No10 revealed Covid deaths and cases continued to fall, with 19,202 infections and 1,322 fatalities in the last 24 hours
Pointing to a chart showing the Covid death and hospital admission rates, Professor Whitty told the press conference tonight: ‘If you look at the situation for people that have gone into hospital only 54 per cent of all the people who go into hospital are over that age [70].
‘So what this means is that once we vaccinated down to 70 and above – plus those who care for them, frontline NHS staff and frontline care workers – we should significantly reduce the number of deaths.
‘But we will reduce by a much smaller number the number of people going into hospital because a very large number of people going into hospital who will come out of hospital – they will recover – but they have to be in the NHS and have care for example oxygen, medicine and steroid drugs.
‘If we vaccinate all the way down to the people over 50, and those who have actually got pre-existing health conditions, you then get through virtually all the people who have a high chance of dying.
‘So this is around 98 per cent of those who die are in that group. Importantly around 80 per cent, just over 80 per cent of all of those who go into hospital.’
Professor Whitty added: ‘So the first wave which is the aim is to complete on the 15th of February we would expect a situation where we can stop a very high proportion of the deaths but rather a smaller proportion of the pressure on the NHS – those very large numbers in hospital.
‘As you go onto the next wave, down to those over 50 we have further in roads into reducing deaths and also significantly reduce the pressure on the NHS.
‘The final point I would like to make and it is a cheery one – if you look down at the bottom of this the number of children under the age of 18 who go into hospital is relatively speaking very small compared to adults.’
The comments comes after a major surveillance study revealed today around one in seven people in England — the equivalent of 8.6million — had coronavirus antibodies by mid-January.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) tested the blood of more than 1,300 people across the country and found 15.3 per cent tested positive for antibodies — up from 10 per cent in December. The proportion was as high as 21 per cent in London.
Antibodies are substances made by the immune system in response to infection or vaccinations which defend against viruses. The presence of them in the blood generally means someone has either partial or total immunity against catching a disease again.
But the figures could easily be an under-estimate because antibody levels fade over time and some people won’t ever develop any. Scientists believe most people have high levels of antibodies for six months after an infection but to what extend they fade after then remains a mystery because there has not been a long enough time to follow up.
The true size of the pandemic is a mystery because millions of infected people were not tested during the height of the crisis last spring. If the ONS results are accurate, it would suggest Covid has an infection-fatality rate (IFR) of around 1.26 per cent, given there have been around 110,000 lab-confirmed deaths since the pandemic began.
No10’s top scientific advisers believe the mortality rate is closer to the 0.5 per cent mark, suggesting that around 22million people — or almost 40 per cent of England’s population — have already had the virus.
Meanwhile, there are also questions about whether previous infection from an older strain of Covid fully protects people from catching or falling ill with new variants of the virus.
It appears as though former patients are immune to the Kent strain, based on vaccine studies which show the current crop of jabs work fine in neutralising that variant. But scientists are more concerned about strains that emerged in South Africa and Brazil, which are at least somewhat antibody resistant and make vaccines less potent.
It’s thought Covid survivors will still enjoy strong protection against those variants because antibodies are only one part of a larger immune response to Covid, which also involves crucial white blood cells. However, there have been confirmed reports of a handful of health workers in Brazil becoming sick with the new variant there months after recovering from the original strain.
The ONS’s survey, which collects regular blood samples from a group of people intended to represent England’s population, suggested that signs of immunity are strongest in London, where antibodies were found in 21 per cent of people.
The West Midlands saw the second highest past rate (18.8 per cent), followed by Yorkshire and the Humber (18.7 per cent). Six out of nine regions had levels higher than the England average, with only the South East, South West and East of England showing lower signs of immunity than the country as a whole.
The figures are different to estimates made by Cambridge University experts, who also feed into SAGE. Last month the team estimated the attack rate — the proportion of how many people in any region that have had the virus — stood at 30 per cent in London and 26 per cent in the North East.
It’s thought that at least 60 per cent of a population need to have caught the virus for the group to reach herd immunity, which is when a disease runs out of room and can no longer spread because too many people are immune to it.
The ONS estimates how many people have had coronavirus already by checking the blood samples of adults over the age of 16 for antibodies. It omits people living in care homes and prisons, or other communal settings.
The data — which comes following the rapid spread of Covid over the past two months — may have been muddied by the fact millions of people have had a vaccine and will now show the same sign of immunity.
Outside of England, an estimated one in nine people in Wales had been infected by mid-January, up from one in 14 in December.
For Scotland, the estimate was one in 10, up from one in 13, and for Northern Ireland it was one in 11, up from one in 14.
It comes as another 33 cases of the troublesome South African Covid variant have been spotted in Britain, health chiefs revealed amid growing fears over mutant strains that experts say could make vaccines less effective.
Public Health England claimed 143 people have now been struck down with the variant since it was first discovered on British soil in December – including five in Scotland and nine in Wales. None have been found in Northern Ireland.
In yet another potential twist to the UK’s coronavirus crisis, officials also announced they have found 11 cases of the Kent coronavirus variant which carries an extra mutation in Bristol.
And 32 people in Liverpool have been struck down with the original strain of the virus that has the same mutation – scientifically known as E484K. MailOnline understands the cases were spotted three weeks ago.
Matt Hancock announced both discoveries in the House of Commons yesterday, revealing that a new door-to-door testing blitz was being rushed to both cities in a last-ditch attempt to stop the mutations spreading further.
The E484K mutation – also found in the South African and Brazilian variants – appears to boost the virus’s ability to avoid the immune system, raising the risk of reinfections or the current crop of vaccines being less effective.
It has appeared separately in cases of both the Kent variant and on the original version of the virus. Neither are yet being described as new variants but represent physical differences to the virus that could change how it behaves.
No10 yesterday launched a mass-testing drive to swab 80,000 people in eight areas of England where cases of the South African variant were discovered in people who hadn’t been to the country. Health chiefs have yet to reveal exactly where in Bristol and Liverpool the scheme is being expanded to — but tens of thousands of people are likely to be targeted.
Meanwhile, Downing Street has delivered a tough message that people should only be leaving home in the affected areas if it is unavoidable — suggesting that means using tinned food at home if possible rather than going to the shops.
Mr Hancock signalled that the tactic is being expanded further in a statement to the Commons. He said: ‘In all these areas it is imperative that people must stay at home and only leave home where it is absolutely essential.’
Despite the frantic bid to try and stop the mutated variants spreading in Britain, scientists have warned the cases identified so far are likely just the ‘tip of the iceberg’.
Mr Hancock said: ‘In those areas where this [South African] variant has been found – parts of Broxbourne, London, Maidstone and Southport, Walsall and Woking – we’re putting in extra testing and sequencing every positive test.
‘Working with local authorities we’re going door to door to test everyone in those areas and mobile testing units will be deployed offering PCR tests to people who have to leave their home for work or other essential reasons.
‘We have also seen 11 cases of mutations of concern in Bristol and 32 in Liverpool, and are taking the same approach. In all these areas it is imperative that people must stay at home and only leave home where it is absolutely essential.’
People will not be told what variant they are carrying because this cannot be seen in a routine test, but the plan intends to find positive cases among people without symptoms in a bid to isolate them before they can infect others.
The surge testing is now taking place at a variety of locations in England amid concerns about the mutant strains
In a desperate attempt to keep track of the South African variant that experts fear could effect the current crop of vaccines, health officials are carrying out swabs in Woking in Surrey, Walsall in the West Midlands, as well as parts of London, Kent, Hertfordshire and Lancashire
Mr Hancock suggested the testing could be extended to neighbouring postcodes when he was pushed in the Commons by Labour’s Jonathan Ashworth.
‘We absolutely do that where it is epidemiologically sensible,’ he said.
Oxford and AstraZeneca will make a new Covid vaccine by AUTUMN to tackle mutated variants as coronavirus keeps evolving to escape the immune system
Oxford University and AstraZeneca plan to have a new Covid vaccine ready by the autumn to tackle new variants of the coronavirus, they confirmed today.
Growing evidence suggests that a mutation first found in the South African variant of the virus, and now cropping up elsewhere, can reduce how well current vaccines work because it changes the shape of the spike protein that the jabs target.
And to overcome this, jab manufacturers say they are already working on updating their vaccines because they need to be extremely specific to offer the best form of protection.
The Oxford/AstraZeneca team, makers of one of the world’s most advanced vaccines so far, say they will have their adapted version ready and manufactured before the end of 2021.
Oxford’s Professor Andrew Pollard, who is leading studies of the jab, said it would be a ‘short process’ compared to making the original vaccine from scratch.
The update could be used either as a booster for people who have already had a different vaccine or it could be used on its own for those who are still unvaccinated.
AstraZeneca’s executive vice-president, Sir Mene Pangalos, said today: ‘We’re very much aiming to have something ready by the autumn this year.’
The announcement comes after the team got a huge boost to their jab development from a study published last night that suggested it can cut transmission by up to two thirds and a single dose can prevent 76 per cent of severe illnesses for three months, with that rising to 82 per cent after the second dose.
In another ray of hope from Oxford’s research, Dr Andrew Pollard — one of the lead Oxford researchers — said he is confident the current jabs will still prevent severe Covid in people who get infected with mutated variants of the virus.
He admitted the South African strain ‘will have a big impact on the immune response from all the vaccines’, suggesting the jab may not be as effective in curbing spread. But he says it is possible that it will morph to become like other coronaviruses that just cause a common cold or ‘mild’ infections.
‘So, for instance, if the case is found on the border of a postcode, obviously we go across that border and we also investigate linked premises, for instance if somebody had a child at a school or is going to work in a particular workplace.’
However, experts are sceptical about the testing scheme and say there are far more than 11 people infected with the strain already and that testing will slow it down, at best.
Public Health England has discovered the cases through random spot-checks on the swabs that people testing positive have submitted through the official testing scheme. This means that only a small proportion of the cases are sampled and, if they can be picked up randomly, it is likely there are large numbers of them.
Professor Andrew Hayward, an infectious disease expert at University College London and a member of SAGE, said that the 11 cases are the ‘tip of the iceberg’. He told Sky News: ‘We sequence between five and 10 per cent of cases so you can immediately tell from that that we have a big under-estimation of the number of cases.’
And Professor Calum Semple, a researcher at the University of Liverpool and also a member of SAGE, said on BBC Radio 4: ‘There is probably a few more cases out there than we even know about’.
Meanwhile Britain hit the major milestone of vaccinating 10million people against coronavirus but critics have demanded No10 gets a grip on the ‘lackadaisical approach’ to dishing out jabs on Sundays.
With the country jabbing an average 400,000 people every day and with a week-and-a-half to go, the UK is well on track to achieving its goal of giving the first vaccine dose to the 14million most vulnerable Brits by mid-February.
But despite the inoculation drive being an undoubted success, Britain is administering more vaccines per person than any other country except Israel, a trend has emerged in the figures showing a sharp drop-off in uptake on Sundays.
For example last Sunday there were 46 per cent fewer jabs administered compared to the day before — dropping from almost 600,000 to 320,000. The fall was even more pronounced two Sundays ago, on January 24, when half as many jabs were done compared to the Saturday.
Several GPs, who asked not to be named, told MailOnline that a large number of practices shut on Sundays and do not offer appointments – despite No10 insisting the immunisation drive is 24/7 operation. It echoed claims made by Scotland’s national clinical director yesterday who said the closure of surgeries on Sundays was hampering the vaccine rollout North of the Border.
Economists from the Institute for Economic Affairs told MailOnline that there is ‘no incentive’ for family doctors, who’ve been juggling the vaccine rollout and battling Covid on the frontlines of the second wave, to work seven days a week. It suggested GPs be offered commission on every jab done on a weekend.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock today blamed ‘lumpy supply’ for the Sunday blips in Britain’s coronavirus vaccine rollout and revealed plans to administer jabs through the night were going to be scrapped.
Asked about the fluctuations during a round of interviews this morning, Mr Hancock claimed the issue was being caused by patchy deliveries of supplies. He told LBC Radio: ‘The answer is absolutely about supply… The supply is lumpy and as soon as a big shipment comes in we deliver it to the front line and they get it out as fast as we can.’
The Adam Smith think-tank told MailOnline the blips were a ‘worrying sign of lost priorities’. Deputy director Matt Kilcoyne added: ‘We need to make sure that we are firing on all cylinders at every single point, every single day. This is the most important issue in politics right now and the fact that we are failing to ramp up right across the week is a worrying sign of lost priorities of everybody who is involved in the pandemic.’
Mr Hancock also suggested No10 was purposefully masking data on its vaccine supplies, adding: ‘We don’t publish the supply figures and the reason we don’t is that they move around.’
Liberal Democrat MP Layla Moran, who chairs the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Coronavirus, slammed Mr Hancock for hiding the figures. ‘We need transparency from the Government about vaccine supply and how that is affecting the rate at which people can get their jabs,’ she told MailOnline.
‘It’s vital that we take advantage of every hour of every day to vaccinate as many people as possible, and any issues with vaccinations on Sundays must be explored and fixed by the Government.’
