Data map shows 26% of US counties are battling COVID-19 outbreaks

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Twenty six percent of counties across the United States are now battling uncontrollable coronavirus outbreaks, a data map shows – as the number of infections increased to nearly 40,000 for the fourth day and forecast models predict at least 150,000 deaths by August. 

The data map, compiled by spatial analytics company Esri, shows that counties in the South and parts of the Southwest are currently experiencing an ‘epidemic trend’, or uncontrollable spread, of COVID-19 cases. 

Updated data from Monday shows that of the 3,141 counties across the US, 824 are currently experiencing an epidemic outbreak and 1,251 are seeing spreading trends, which is an outbreak that could still be controlled if preventative measures are taken.

Across the country, 885 counties are currently seeing a controlled trend in new coronavirus cases.

The entire state of Arizona is currently seeing epidemic or spreading trends, according to the data map. Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, the Carolinas and California only have a handful of counties that have controlled the spread. 

About half the counties in Texas are currently seeing epidemic and spreading trends in new infections. Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia are currently seeing epidemic trends in recent deaths, according to the data map.   

It comes as infections across the US surged to 38,000 on Sunday after surpassing 40,000 for the previous three days, bringing the total number of cases to more than 2.5 million. 

While cases continues to spike – especially in states like Texas, California, Arizona and Florida – deaths appear to be declining across the country. More than 125,000 Americans have now died from coronavirus. 

Health officials have warned that while deaths appear to be declining, it could potentially shoot back up again because fatality rates often lag behind infection rates. 

Forecast models are currently predicting at least 150,000 COVID-19 deaths across the country by August if current social distancing measures remain in place.

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics model is forecasting 143,000 deaths by August 1. That death toll is forecast to drop by 5,000 if 95 percent of people wear masks. 

A model from the Carnegie Mellon University Delphi Research Center is predicting 149,900 deaths by August 1 and the COVID-19 Simulator Consortium is estimating 143,000 deaths by that same date. 

The new forecasts come as hotspot states California, Texas and Florida ordered bars to close for the second time – the first major rollback of efforts to reopen their economies – as they battle spikes in COVID-19 cases.

California Governor Gavin Newsom’s order for bars to close in Los Angeles and six other counties on Sunday followed moves by Texas and Florida to shut all their bars on Friday.  

Public health officials in California and throughout the US have identified bars as the riskiest non-essential businesses currently open. 

Even in states where cases have been declining, bars have been a source of outbreaks. One bar in East Lansing, Michigan, has been linked to more than 85 cases and local health officials say that number is likely to rise.

At least 12 states in total have either halted or rolled back their reopening efforts in the hope of stemming the spread. 

The surge in cases has been most pronounced in Southern and Western states that did not follow health officials’ recommendations to wait for a steady decline in cases before reopening. 

In Arizona, cases have risen by 267 percent this month and jumped by a record 3,857 on Sunday – the eighth record-breaking increase this month. Georgia reported a record increase of 2,225 cases on Sunday. 

Fifteen states, including California, Florida and Texas, saw record rises in cases last week.   

Texas recorded 5,357 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, which was down from the record 5,996 last Thursday. Florida recorded 8,530 cases on Sunday, down from a record 9,564 on Friday. California recorded 4,810 new cases on Saturday.

Only two states, Connecticut and Rhode Island, have reported a drop in infection rates compared to the previous week.  

As cases continue to spike, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar warned on CNN on Sunday that ‘the window is closing’ for the country to get the pandemic under control. 

‘Things are very different from two months ago… So it is a very different situation, but this is a very, very serious situation and the window is closing for us to take action and get this under control,’ Azar said. 

Azar, however, stressed that the US was more prepared to tackle a rise in cases than it was when the virus first emerged in March, pointing to increased testing, contact tracing, increased hospital capacity, a reserve of PPE and advances towards therapeutics and vaccines. 

He refused to blame the spike in cases on states reopening and said ‘inappropriate individual behavior’ was the culprit in spreading the virus.  

‘That’s not so much about what the law says on the reopening as what our behaviors are within that,’ he said, urging the public to wear masks and practice social distancing.

‘If we act irresponsibly, if we don’t socially distance, if we don’t use face coverings in settings where we can’t social distance, if we don’t practice appropriate personal hygiene, we’re going to see spread of disease.’

President Donald Trump has so far refused to wear masks in public and several states do not have mandates requiring residents to wear them. 

Vice President Mike Pence traveled to Texas on Sunday where he told a news conference that Americans should wear masks. 

‘We encourage everyone to wear a mask in the affected areas,’ Pence said. ‘Where you can’t maintain social distancing, wearing a mask is just a good idea, especially young people.’  

Former CDC Director Tom Frieden warned on Sunday that the recent spike in COVID-19 cases are not just a reflection of increased testing efforts, but a real spread of the virus of which Americans must be aware of to help combat the pandemic.

‘The virus has the upper hand,’ Frieden said on Fox News Sunday. ‘This virus is not going to go away on its own. We have to stop it.’

He said that though people are tired of staying at home, ‘the virus is not tired of making us sick’. Friedan blamed the rise in cases on state reopening too soon, particularly in southern and western states.

‘If you open when cases are still increasing, as many states did, it’s like leaning into a left hook,’ Frieden said. ‘You’re going to get hit hard. And that’s what’s happening.’

Frieden also warned that numbers will only get worse for weeks before they get better, because the new measures being implemented will take time to be effective.