CNN Projection: Indiana governor wins reelection
With Democrats poised to expand their House majority this year, the two biggest things to watch on Election Night will be how many seats they flip and where they are.
The gains Democrats make will say a lot about how much partisanship is changing along geographic and educational divides — and how much the national environment, specifically President Trump, may have accelerated those changes.
Democrats made historic gains in the 2018 midterms, flipping 40 seats with the help of massive fundraising and enthusiasm for sending a message to the White House and GOP-controlled Congress. At the time, that looked like a high-water mark. The current balance of power in the House is 232 Democrats to 197 Republicans with one Libertarian and five vacancies.
The trends that fueled those Democratic pickups two years ago have only intensified since then. With Trump on the ballot this year, his unpopularity among well-educated and affluent voters is expected to further sink down-ballot Republicans, even in places that voted for him four years ago.
And it’s no longer just wealthy metropolitan areas that are in play for Democrats. The party has made inroads in some unexpected places, while also holding off strong challengers or remaining competitive in rural districts that voted for the President by double digits four years ago and may back him again this year.
Republicans need a net gain of 17 seats to flip the chamber — a tall order in any year. But that task became more of a challenge as the pandemic, and Trump’s handling of it, dominated the election. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, a CNN contributor, now projects Democrats will win a net gain of between 14 and 20 seats this year.
Democrats are still facing real fights to hold some of their seats — especially in places like New York’s Staten Island, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah and Minnesota, primarily places with a high concentration of White, working class voters. But the party pivoted to being increasingly on offense over the course of the cycle.
Read about some of the key races here
CNN’s Phil Mattingly reports:
