Finland will debate joining NATO despite threat from neighbours Russia of ‘military consequences’

Finland will today debate joining NATO after a petition calling for a referendum reached 50,000 signatories in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

The move to debate Finland’s NATO membership comes despite neighbouring Russia threatening the country with ‘military and political consequences’ if they join the military alliance.

Finnish MPs will discuss the possibility of their country joining NATO on Tuesday after an opinion poll showed a historic change in attitude in the traditionally non-aligned country after Putin waged war on Ukraine.

‘I fully understand that the view of many Finns on the issue of NATO membership has changed or is changing as Russia has started military action against Ukraine. This is understandable,’ Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin said. 

She said on Monday evening that a planned debate in parliament the following day would cover the situation in Ukraine and was not intended as a ‘wider conversation on Finland’s policy regarding military alignment or non-alignment’.

But she added that since a citizen’s petition requesting a parliament debate on a referendum had reached the necessary 50,000 signatories to trigger a debate in parliament, it ‘makes sense to hear the parties’ views on handling the issue.’

‘From this perspective, the issue will also figure in tomorrow’s parliamentary debate,’ Marin said.

The petition, which is calling for a referendum on membership, was launched last Monday and reached the targeted 50,000 by the end of the week.

Marin said that the shift in Finnish opinion on joining NATO has been influenced by Russia’s movements in Ukraine. 

She told Finnish newspaper Helsingin Sanomat: ‘The question is if Russia crosses a border, are we alone or with others.’ 

Finland shares a lengthy land border with Russia, and the two countries fought a short but bloody war over it between 1939 to 1940 which saw Finland inflict heavy losses on Soviet forces.    

The debate also comes on the heels of a poll released Monday by public broadcaster Yle, showing that most Finnish people now favour joining NATO, according to a poll released Monday, a historic change in attitude and a major shift compared to even just a few months ago.

According to the survey, commissioned by public broadcaster Yle, 53 percent of Finns backed their country joining the military alliance, 28 percent opposed it, and 19 percent were unsure.

‘A completely historic and exceptional result,’ Charly Salonius-Pasternak, senior research fellow at Finnish Institute of International Affairs, said. ‘The change is dramatic.’

The poll surveyed 1,382 respondents between the ages of 18 and 80 between February 23 and 25, said Yle.

In contrast, a January poll published by the Helsingin Sanomat newspaper had only 28 percent in favour and 42 percent against NATO membership.

‘The only significant thing that has changed is that Russia has attacked a neighbouring country that is not a member of NATO,’ Salonius-Pasternak said.

Although the results of the latest poll could be an effect of the initial shock at the Russian invasion, the researcher said he believed support would likely remain at a higher level. 

When Yle last commissioned a similar poll in 2017, support for NATO membership was at 34 percent.

Finland shares a 830-mile-long border with Russia. While neither it nor neighbouring Sweden are NATO members, both countries are partners of the Western military alliance.

Faced with Moscow’s demands that NATO not expand eastwards, Helsinki and Stockholm have rejected any Russian interference in their security policy.

Both countries have received assurances from NATO that the door remains open to them, though the Social Democrats in power in both countries have no plans to join.

In another response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Alko, Finland’s state-run alcohol distributor, took vodka and other Russian products off the shelves Monday.

‘The situation in Ukraine is shocking and we have taken it seriously,’ said spokesman Anu Koskinen, announcing the suspension of both in-store and online sales.

The measure will affect around 30 Russian products – most of them vodka – from its total stock of 11,000 items.

In neighbouring Sweden, the state-run alcohol monopoly Systembolaget also announced it would stop the sale of Russian products.

Last week, Russia threatened its close Arctic neighbours Sweden and Finland with ‘military consequences’ if they join NATO.  

Sweden and Finland are the two closest countries to Russia in the Arctic Circle. 

‘Finland and Sweden should not base their security on damaging the security of other countries and their accession to NATO can have detrimental consequences and face some military and political consequences,’ Russian foreign affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said during a news briefing. 

The foreign ministry later reiterated the threat on Twitter. 

‘We regard the Finnish government’s commitment to a military non-alignment policy as an important factor in ensuring security and stability in northern Europe,’ the department wrote. ‘Finland’s accession to NATO would have serious military and political repercussions.’ 

Vladimir Putin is widely believed to have attacked Ukraine after western nations mooted the idea of the country joining NATO, over fears it could end up with a US military presence on its doorstep.

A similar move by Sweden or Finland could potentially provoke similar ire.   

Ukrainian leaders want to join NATO but Russia has been strongly opposed to the move. 

Western nations have increased weapons shipments to Ukraine to help its forces defend themselves – but have so far ruled out sending in troops. 

Still, the embattled country moved to solidify its ties to the West by applying to join the European Union – a largely symbolic move for now, but one that won’t sit well with Putin, who was already infuriated by Ukraine’s desire to join the NATO alliance.

Messages aimed at the advancing Russian soldiers popped up on billboards, bus stops and electronic traffic signs across the capital. Some used profanity to encourage Russians to leave. Others appealed to their humanity.