Ukraine crisis: Fears Russian ‘false flag’ operation is underway to justify invasion

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Artillery fire rang out in eastern Ukraine today as Kiev’s forces and Moscow-backed rebels each blamed the other for the shooting, sparking fears that this could be the trigger for a Russian invasion.

Images showing a partially-destroyed kindergarten circulated on social media early Thursday, with pro-Ukraine accounts saying the building is located on their side of frontlines in the war-torn Donbas region and was hit by separatists – while pro-Russia accounts claimed it actually on their side of the frontier and was hit by Kiev’s men.

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, an independent UN monitor, confirmed that artillery had been fired in the region, but did not immediately say who was shooting at who. Witnesses also reported the sound of artillery around Donetsk Airport and the village of Elenovka, both in rebel-held territory. 

It has sparked fears that a Russian ‘false flag’ operation is now underway to justify marching troops into Ukraine on the basis of ‘protecting’ ethnic Russians living in Donbas – a tactic last used during the 2008 invasion of Georgia.

Meanwhile satellite images showed a new pontoon bridge built between an area of Belarus where Russian troops are training and Ukrainian territory, along with the construction of new field hospitals which are not normally constructed during military drills and would instead be used to treat casualties of any fighting. 

It comes amid warnings from NATO and Washington that Vladimir Putin is not withdrawing troops from Ukraine’s borders – as he has claimed – but is instead moving forces closer and continuing to build up troop numbers, with an extra 7,000 arriving yesterday and today.

There are now thought to be around 150,000 troops backed by tanks, artillery, attack helicopters and fighter jets stationed near Ukraine – more than half of Russia’s total ground forces – which are at a high level of readiness and could invade at short notice, according to Western allies. 

Around 20 Russian warships started drills in the Caspian Sea on Thursday, Russia’s defence ministry said, part of broader war games involving most of its army and navy.  

Putin claimed earlier this week that ‘genocide’ is underway against Russians in Donbas, an unsubstantiated claim that was immediately followed by reports in state media outlets of the discovery of ‘mass graves’ dating back to 2014 when Moscow last invaded.

The White House has been warning for weeks that such claims could be used to justify a Russian attack, with State Department spokesman Ned Price saying: ‘Over the past several weeks, we’ve also seen Russian officials plant numerous stories in the press, any one of which could be elevated to serve as a pretext for an invasion.’

Those claims, which have spread on social media, include genocide, mass graves and the potential of the Ukrainian government to use chemical weapons against the people of Donbass. 

‘There is no basis of truth to any of these allegations,’ Price said. ‘These are false narratives that Russia is developing for use as a pretext for military action against Ukraine.’

Satellite images released overnight show Russia has moved some of its military equipment that was deployed near Ukraine, but other hardware has arrived and Moscow still has a lot of forces and equipment in the region. 

In Crimea, from where Russia has shown videos of it pulling out tanks and military equipment, Maxar pointed to armoured vehicles positioned at the Yevpatoria railyard that could be preparing to depart.

Troops and equipment remained deployed, however, at other sites on the peninsula that Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014, including the Opuk training area, and sites at Lake Donuzlav and Novoozernoye, it said.

In Belarus, where Russia is holding exercises, Maxar pointed to a new military pontoon bridge over the Pripyat river less than six kilometres from the border with Ukraine, and a large new field hospital at one training site.

At an airfield in Belarus, a new unit of nearly 20 attack helicopters had been deployed, but significant troop and ground forces units recently deployed there had departed and were unaccounted for, Maxar said.

Troops and armoured equipment were still deployed at other sites and were training. Most of the equipment and troop housing area that had been present near Rechitsa in southeast Belarus has departed and was unaccounted for, it said, adding that a military convoy was seen heading west.

Speaking Thursday morning, UK  Minister for the Armed Forces James Heappey said that intelligence he has seen over the last 48 hours indicates Russia is continuing to build its forces near Ukraine. 

‘You saw overnight that the US administration has briefed out that a further 7,000 are moving towards the border,’ he told the BBC Radio 4 Today Programme.

‘Those aren’t necessarily numbers that we’ve been able to verify for ourselves, but certainly the trend is that more is moving towards Ukraine rather than away from it, and we’re concerned that that’s the case.’ 

Asked on Times Radio whether Moscow was ‘lying’ about withdrawing from the area around the border, he added: ‘I would offer that we have seen intelligence – open source intelligence – over the last few days that clearly shows the build-up of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border continues.

‘That there are more moving to the area than people moving away, and that the key combat enablers that we saw moved towards the Ukrainian border over the last few days now include bridges having been built and a number of other things, suggest the final preparations are being made for them to invade.’

Asked whether he was saying Moscow was ‘ramping up’ preparations for an incursion rather than moving back, Mr Heappey replied: ‘That’s exactly what I believe to be happening, yes.’

A senior U.S. administration official said some forces arrived only recently and that there had been a marked increase in false claims by Russians that the Kremlin might use as pretext for an invasion. 

The official said those claims included reports of unmarked graves of civilians allegedly killed by Ukrainian forces, assertions that the U.S. and Ukraine are developing biological or chemical weapons, and claims that the West is funneling in guerrillas to kill Ukrainians.

The official was not authorized to speak publicly about sensitive operations and spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity. The official did not provide underlying evidence for the assertions.

‘We haven’t seen a pullback,’ U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told ABC News. Russian President Vladimir Putin ‘can pull the trigger. He can pull it today. He can pull it tomorrow. He can pull it next week. The forces are there if he wants to renew aggression against Ukraine.’

Asked why Russians would claim to be withdrawing when government intelligence, commercial satellite photos and social media videos showed no evidence of that, State Department spokesman Ned Price said: ‘This is the Russian playbook, to paint a picture publicly . while they do the opposite.’

British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace also said there had been an increase of up to 7,000 troops in recent days.

‘We have seen the opposite of some of the statements,’ he said in Brussels. ‘We’re going to judge Russia by their actions and at the moment the troop buildup continues.’

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg also said the alliance had not seen ‘any withdrawal of Russian forces.’

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy similarly dismissed the Russian claims.

‘What is this? Rotations, withdrawal, returning back again,’ he said on a visit to the southeastern city of Mariupol. ‘It’s too early to rejoice.’

The Ukrainian leader, who has repeatedly sought to project calm and strength during the crisis, declared Wednesday a day of ‘national unity’ – a day that had been floated as a possibility for the start of an invasion.

Across the country, Ukrainians of all ages waved flags in the streets and from apartment windows.

Hundreds unfolded a 200-meter (650-foot) flag at Kyiv’s Olympic Stadium, while another was draped in the center of a shopping mall in the capital.

In the government-controlled part of Ukraine’s eastern region of Luhansk, where Russian-backed separatists have been fighting Ukrainian troops since 2014, residents stretched another huge flag across a street.

‘This event, this number of people united around the Ukrainian flag will show that we stand for united Ukraine,’ resident Olena Tkachova said.

A 2015 deal brokered by France and Germany helped end the worst of the fighting in eastern Ukraine, but implementation has stalled. The deal, known as the Minsk agreement, would offer broad self-rule to the separatist territories and thus is resented by many in Ukraine.

A Ukrainian government official said in a television interview that Zelenskyy would consider holding a referendum on the Minsk agreement ‘if there are no other options or instruments.’ But Vice Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said she was unaware that such an idea was under serious discussion.

The U.N. Security Council is scheduled to hold its annual meeting on the Minsk agreement on Thursday. Russia, which holds the rotating council presidency this month, will chair the meeting. At last year’s council meeting, Russia clashed with the U.S. and its Western allies over the conflict in eastern Ukraine and a similar confrontation is expected this year.

Putin has signaled that he wants a peaceful path out of the crisis. His country has repeatedly complained that the U.S. and NATO have not responded satisfactorily in writing to its security concerns. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Russia is in the final phase of preparing its formal response to the West.

‘After that, a schedule of further steps will be developed,’ she said on state television.

It appeared to be another indication that the Kremlin is determined to keep up the pressure for a while.