Prospects are bleak that 10 Republicans would buck McConnell to join Senate Democrats in voting to investigate Jan. 6 riot

Democrats would need 10 Republican lawmakers to buck their leadership, join Democrats and spend the next several months diving further into the events that shook the Capitol four months ago.

The bottom line: In the last three days, the shift among Senate Republicans here has been rapid with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell laying the groundwork to educate his members on what he views as potential shortcomings and pitfalls of another investigative body. The evolution here has been swift and to underscore that, look no further than two GOP senators from South Dakota. On Monday, Sens. Mike Rounds and John Thune seemed open to a potential commission. In the days that have followed, they’ve made it clear they are far more likely now to vote no.

Behind the scenes

McConnell has been working his members in the classic way: not telling them what to do, but instead laying out what a commission would actually mean for them day to day. A key point McConnell and Republicans like Sen. Roy Blunt of Missouri have been making to rank and file is that there are already bodies doing expansive investigative work. You have the Department of Justice, oversight hearings in the House, a bipartisan, multi-committee effort coming from Senate Rules and Homeland that will produce a report in a matter of weeks and no shortage of hearings over the last several months. A commission, McConnell has argued, would be duplicative. And for a lot of members, that has been convincing. Blunt has also been telling members that if the goal of a commission is to understand security failures and better equip the Capitol, waiting another seven months to get those answers isn’t useful.

Who is where?

In the last several days, CNN’s congressional team has been running our own whip count of how members are viewing the commission on the GOP side. This list isn’t comprehensive, but it gives a glimpse of where about half of the conference stands right now. Expect in upcoming hours for the “no” votes to grow.

GOP senators planning to vote no

GOP senators who may vote yes

GOP senators who’ve expressed concerns about the House bill

Who could vote yes?

One talking point we have heard: Is that the commission is structured in a way that gives the chairman sole power to hire staff on the commission. And, there is a bit more nuance to it than that. Some Republicans have told us that the bill is different than the bill that established the 9/11 commission. CNN has pulled the language of both bills, and both bills were structured the exact same way. Ultimately, yes, the chairman has the final say on who to hire, but those decisions are made “in consultation” with the vice chair.

This story and headline have been updated Thursday with additional developments.