West warned ‘don’t drop your guard’ over Russian ‘withdrawal’ in Ukraine

Western leaders have been warned against dropping their guard after Russia announced earlier today it intends to ‘fundamentally scale back’ military operations around the Ukrainian capital.

The Kremlin’s Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin said the change on the battlefield was meant to increase trust at peace talks, suggesting that the foundations of a ceasefire could be in play.

His superior Sergey Shoigu meanwhile said Russian forces will now concentrate on the ‘liberation’ of the eastern Donbass region rather than attacking major Ukrainian cities, which represents a major tactical shift in the face of bitter resistance.

But the announcement has been met with skepticism in Europe and the US, with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson today declaring Vladimir Putin could still seek to ‘twist the knife’ as the war enters a new phase. 

And Western officials have remained highly suspicious of Russia’s true intentions, arguing that Russian attacks have continued despite the Kremlin’s promise to scale back troops in major urban centres.

One official speaking on condition of anonymity said: ‘Nothing that we have seen so far has demonstrated to us that President Putin and his colleagues are particularly serious about [scaling back]. It is more of a tactical exercise playing for time.

‘Even if they do do what they say they are going to do that is not in any shape or form a cessation of hostilities… I think we can continue to see continued death and destruction [in the Donbass].’ 

Western skepticism to Russia’s supposed de-escalation of the conflict emerged as Russian and Ukrainian negotiators met in Istanbul today for their first face-to-face talks in two weeks, in a further attempt to see if they can find sufficient common ground to end the fighting. 

Deputy Defence Minister Fomin’s promise to reduce the Kremlin’s military presence near the Ukrainian cities of Kyiv and Chernihiv following today’s talks appears to be the first major concession that Russia has made since the beginning of their invasion in Ukraine more than a month ago.

The outcome of the face-to-face talks in Istanbul, at which Fomin himself was present, raised hopes that the conflict in Ukraine could soon be brought to an end, while the Ukrainian military’s general staff said earlier it had noted troop withdrawals around the two cities in question.

But London and Washington immediately cast doubt on Russia’s words and, on the ground, Ukraine said seven people were killed by a Russian strike on a government building in the city of Mykolaiv.

The Russian pullback is being offered as a goodwill tactic, but there are suspicions it is simply a way of saving face, given the invader’s heavy losses of troops, tanks and armoured vehicles.

Boris Johnson said Putin could well be preparing to further ‘twist the knife’ and insisted it was important to maintain both military and economic pressure on the Russian regime despite the supposed pullback.  

A spokesman for Johnson added: ‘We will judge Putin and his regime by his actions and not by his words,’ before saying the British government and armed forces were looking at ‘all possible options’ to ensure the Ukrainians had the equipment they needed while avoiding any ‘escalatory effects’.

Though there was positivity surrounding today’s peace talks in Istanbul, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he had not seen anything to indicate that negotiations were progressing in a ‘constructive way,’ speculating Russia’s pullback is likely an attempt to ‘deceive people and deflect attention.’

‘There is what Russia says and there is what Russia does, and we´re focused on the latter,’ Blinken said in Morocco. ‘And what Russia is doing is the continued brutalisation of Ukraine.’

Even as negotiators from the two sides assembled in Istanbul, Putin’s forces hit an oil depot in western Ukraine late Monday and blasted a gaping hole Tuesday morning in a government administration building in Mykolaiv.

While peace talks between Russia and Ukraine were conducted in Istanbul, US President Joe Biden consulted with Johnson and the leaders of France, Germany and Italy to discuss a potential new multimillion-dollar aid package to help Ukraine in light of the invasion. 

Biden spoke by phone for nearly an hour with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson at 9:15 a.m. (1315 GMT), the White House said, though it was not immediately clear whether progress was made. 

Elsewhere, the Russian-backed self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic in eastern Ukraine announced today that it may consider joining Russia officially once it controls all of Ukraine’s Donetsk region.

‘As for joining the Russian Federation, as for the wish and aspiration, they have been clearly traced since 2014 – the desire to be in Russia,’ DPR leader Denis Pushilin was quoted by the Donetsk News Agency as saying.

‘But now the main task is to reach the constitutional borders of the republic. Then we will determine that,’ he said.

The comments come two days after the leader of the other Russian-backed eastern Ukrainian rebel region Luhansk said it may hold a referendum on joining Russia.

Kyiv said any such vote would have no legal basis and would trigger a stronger international response.

Three days before ordering the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin recognised the breakaway territories in Luhansk and Donetsk as independent states, though the rest of the world considers them part of Ukraine.

Ukraine, which says it is fighting for its existence against what it casts as an imperial-style land grab by Russia, has repeatedly said it will never agree to Russia’s annexation of its territory – the hardest part of peace talks with Moscow.