Omicron may be infecting 4,000 BRITONS a day

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As many as 4,000 Britons may be catching Omicron every day with the super-variant on track to replace Delta in in a matter of days, official data suggests — as the mutant pushes Scotland’s Covid cases to a three-month high.

Analysis suggests the highly-evolved virus is now behind 8.5 per cent of coronavirus cases across England and 13.3 per cent north of the border, and is doubling every two to three days.

With an average 48,000 Britons testing positive for Covid every day, it suggests more than 4,000 of them are the new Omicron variant — even though fewer than 1,000 cases have been confirmed. 

Scotland, which along with London has become one of the UK’s Omicron hotspots, today reported 5,018 positive Covid tests, which is the highest number in three months and double the number a week ago. 

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon today told Scots to brace for a ‘tsunami’ of infections, as she warned the new super-variant posed a ‘severe challenge’.

At a press conference in Edinburgh, she said: ‘The fact is we do face a renewed and very severe challenge in the face of the new Omicron variant. To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing – indeed we may be starting to experience – a potential tsunami of infections.’  

Public health chiefs expect Omicron to outstrip Delta nationally by Christmas and even sooner in the epicentre of London, with its rapid spread prompting No10 to resort to its Plan B strategy. 

But Ms Sturgeon believes the variant to become dominant much more rapidly north of the border, adding: ‘I think we can now say with some confidence that we expect it to overtake Delta within days, not weeks – we estimate this could be as early as the very beginning of next week.’ 

A senior member of the Government’s scientific advisory group SAGE yesterday warned that Omicron was spreading even faster in the UK than it is in South Africa — where cases have rocketed 10-fold in a fortnight.

The UK Government hopes Plan B restrictions will be enough to slow the spread of the mutant strain, buying the NHS precious time to dish out millions more booster jabs. 

The first part of Boris Johnson’s Plan B came into force in England today, with the introduction of compulsory face masks in indoor settings such as theatres, cinemas and churches. 

New work-from-home guidance will come into effect on Monday, and MPs will vote the next day on the introduction of vaccine passports for nightclubs and large venues. 

But officials are already drawing up a ‘Plan C’, which would see care homes slapped with fresh restrictions in the run up to Christmas and masks made compulsory in pubs and restaurants.

Controversial vaccine passports could also be extended to more venues as part of contingency measures being floated within Downing Street if Omicron proves to be as dangerous as scientists fear.

SAGE modelling warns Britain could face up to 1,000 hospital admissions a day by the New Year because of the mutant strain, bolstering calls for the UK to ramp up its booster vaccine drive. Health chiefs had also warned of a million cumulative cases by the end of 2021. 

Scientists can estimate Omicron’s spread with PCR tests without sequencing every case. These search for three genes to detect an infection, but the variant is missing one, known as the ‘S’ gene.

Researchers can estimate which ones are Omicron because Delta has all three.

Professor Alastair Grant, a modeller from the University of East Anglia who has access to confidential UK Health Security Agency data, warned of its rapid spread.

He claimed the R rate, which measures the spread of the virus, may be as high as four. This suggests every person who catches the virus will pass it on to four others.  

Professor Grant’s analysis also suggested there may have been 7,000 Omicron infections in the UK since November 20, more than eight times the official tally.

Britain has confirmed 817 infections to date but Government scientists admit the true total may be more than 20 times higher because only a fraction of PCR tests are sent on for further analysis.

West Northamptonshire is the Omicron capital of England, where 83 confirmed or suspected infections with the mutant strain have been detected.

Regionally, London is the epicentre with eight of the ten areas with the most infections with the mutant strain. These are Croydon (up to 10 cases), Hackney (14), Lambeth (16), Newham (22), Brent (14), Greenwich (16), Wandsworth (13) and Lewisham (26).

Professor Kevin Fenton, public health director for London, has warned that the mutant strain could be behind more than five in ten cases in the capital within two weeks.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘We are very concerned about its spread. 

‘Although we have limited diagnostic capabilities to identify the variant at the moment, the samples that we’re taking are confirming that we are seeing a growth in the number of cases every two to three days. 

‘At this rate we should be seeing thousands of diagnosed cases by next week and certainly in the next two to four weeks it should account for the majority of cases that we see in the city, so we are taking this extremely seriously.’

It comes as it was claimed today that care homes could be slapped with fresh restrictions in the run up to Christmas and masks made compulsory in pubs and restaurants under a tougher ‘Plan C’ being considered by ministers. 

A Government source said it was ‘very likely’ care home residents could be banned from seeing more than three visitors over the festive period to prevent another explosive outbreak in the sector.

And as shops, pubs and restaurants warn of the millions they face losing at their busiest time of year under Plan B measures , officials are already working on a potential ‘Plan C’ package.  

This includes having to ‘check in’ with the NHS Covid app again to go to a pub or restaurant, using face masks in all indoor spaces, and having to show a vaccine passport at even more venues.

The first part of the Government’s Plan B came into force on Thursday with the introduction of compulsory face masks in indoor settings such as theatres, cinemas and churches.

The looming threat of even tighter restrictions comes amid fury at Mr Johnson’s decision to impose Plan B measures yesterday, on the same day that he tried to grapple with the fallout of the Downing Street Christmas party scandal. 

He is set to face a ‘war’ with his backbenchers when the measures are voted on next week. They reacted furiously to the planned introduction of vaccine passports next week – and took aim at the ‘conflicting’ guidance on working from home and socialising. 

At least 50 Tories have publicly expressed concerns, and a senior Conservative said Mr Johnson needed to ‘get a grip’.   

Ringleaders have told MailOnline that it will be the biggest mutiny yet, with at least 60 expected to defy the government whip.     

It comes after the UK Health Security Agency’s weekly Covid surveillance report found cases were now rising in nine of ten local authorities in England amid the spread of the variant.

They found infections were ticking up in all age groups, and were highest among 10 to 19-year-olds and 20 to 29-year-olds. Across England, infections also rose in every region.

But the country’s biggest Covid symptom-tracking study yesterday claimed infections in the UK grew by just four per cent last week despite warnings Omicron is quickly outstripping Delta.

King’s College London scientists estimated 83,658 people caught the virus on average each day in the week to December 4, up from 80,483 the seven days prior. 

Cases are stagnant or falling in all over-55s thanks to the booster rollout but are rising in all younger age groups, especially children who make up about 30,000 daily cases alone, they said. Broken down within the UK, London, the South East and Wales saw cases rise.

Professor Tim Spector, who leads the ZOE symptom study, said that while it was too early to see Omicron in the data, he warned the NHS could be overwhelmed if cases of the super-strain begin to skyrocket as predicted.

He said the evidence — alongside claims it may be more mild than other strains — was no reason to be ‘relaxed’, adding: ‘The higher rate of transmission even in the vaccinated could have devastating consequences… Hundreds of people continue to die every week as we head into our second Christmas of this pandemic.’

Professor Spector, who has been calling for more restrictions since September, welcomed Boris Johnson’s Plan B announcement last night but feared it is ‘too little, too late’.

From next week, people in England will be advised to work from home, wear face masks in cinemas and theatres, and use vaccine passports for large events.