Boosters DO beat Omicron and cut risk of falling ill by 75%
Boosters DO beat Omicron and cut risk of falling ill by 75% but two jabs WON’T stop you developing symptoms as promising official analysis shows NO Brits infected with super-mutant strain have been hospitalised yet
Experts are confident that three doses will offer significantly higher immunity against severe illness, deathAnalysis most promising sign yet that Omicron wave of hospital admissions will not surpass previous peaksIn people given 2nd dose three months ago, effectiveness against symptomatic disease could be low as 40%
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Booster Covid jabs offer up to 75 per cent protection against mild illness caused by the super Omicron variant, official UK Government analysis revealed tonight.
Experts are confident that three doses will provide significantly greater immunity against severe illness and death from the highly-evolved strain.
In people who had their second dose more than three months ago, effectiveness against symptomatic disease could be lower than 40 per cent for Pfizer and virtually zero for AstraZeneca.
But officials stress that even two vaccines should still offer high protection against severe illness, in the most promising sign yet that the incoming wave of hospital admissions and deaths will not surpass previous peaks.
There is now growing optimism among No10 scientists that Plan B restrictions and the booster campaign will be enough to avoid more draconian curbs. It was also confirmed that none of the UK’s 1,265 Omicron infections have led to hospital admission or death so far.
The real-world analysis by the UK Health Security Agency looked at 581 people with confirmed Omicron and compared their vaccine status to a control group of people who tested positive for Delta.
It estimated that a Pfizer booster provides between 70 and 75 per cent protection against mild Omicron illness, regardless of which vaccine was originally used, compared to 90 per cent for Delta.
Two doses of Pfizer may offer just 37 per cent protection after three-and-a-half months compared to 60 per cent for Delta. Two shots of AstraZeneca offered virtually no protection after the same amount of time.
But the scientists caution that data for AstraZeneca was less reliable due to the fact the vaccine was restricted in some age groups and typically used at the very start of the initial vaccine rollout in vulnerable people.
UKHSA experts who carried out the study said that while it was disappointing that Omicron weakened existing jabs to some extent, the new variant is not as vaccine-evasive as initially feared.
They warned, however, that because the strain can slip past the immune systems of people with waning protection, it is on track to become dominant in days. The agency estimates that the variant is double every two to three days and that Omicron case numbers will exceed one million by the end of the month.
The above graph shows vaccine effectiveness against mild illness and weeks since vaccination. The data for AstraZeneca was unreliable because so few people given that vaccine have caught Omicron, experts said, which is why some of the percentages drop to minus levels. The analysis showed a Pfizer booster provides between 70 and 75 per cent protection against mild Omicron illness, regardless of which vaccine was originally used, compared to 90 per cent for Delta. Two doses of Pfizer may offer just 37 per cent protection after three-and-a-half months compared to 60 per cent for Delta. Two shots of AstraZeneca offered virtually no protection after the same amount of time. But the scientists caution that data for AstraZeneca was less reliable due to the fact the vaccine was restricted in some age groups and typically used at the very start of the initial vaccine rollout in vulnerable people
UK Health Security Agency data shows that Omicron may now be behind 8.5 per cent of infections. The figures are based on the proportion of PCR tests failing to detect a specific gene, an early indicator of the variant. PCRs look for three genes to confirm a Covid infection, but with Omicron one is so mutated that they only pick up two of them
Public Health Scotland estimates the new variant will be dominant next week, accounting for more than 50 per cent of all Covid cases, and make almost all new infections by the end of the year
Omicron makes up 13.3 per cent of Covid cases in Scotland and is doubling every two to three days
The researchers were unable to determine how much protection the vaccines offered against serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths due to the small number of Omicron cases in the UK and the lag between infection and severe outcomes.
But Dr Mary Ramsay, Head of Immunisation at the UKHSA, said: ‘We expect the vaccines to show higher protection against the serious complications of COVID-19, so if you haven’t yet had your first two doses please book an appointment straight away.’
Previous experience with the Delta strain suggests that protection against hospitalisation after two doses is well maintained, even when it drops against mild illness.
However, experts warn that even slight reductions in vaccine efficacy against severe disease could dramatically increase the number of vaccinated people who will fall seriously unwell.
In SAGE papers published this week, Government scientists said: ‘If omicron reduces vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation from 96 to 92 per cent, that would effectively double the number of vaccinated individuals who are not protected from hospitalisation.’
It came as the number of cases of the super-mutant jumped by 54 per cent in a day and overall daily Covid infections breached levels not seen since the UK’s second wave.
Nicola Sturgeon today warned of an impending ‘tsunami’ triggered by the highly-transmissible variant. Cases north of the border have doubled in a week.
She announced entire families in Scotland will have to self-isolate for 10 days if one member of the household tests positive for coronavirus to help tackle the strain and keep a lid on the impending crisis.
Meanwhile, UK-wide statistics showed cases have risen by 15 per cent in a week to 58,194 — making it the highest daily toll since the darkest depths of January, when Britain was being battered by the Alpha variant but had yet to dish out any vaccines.
Hospitalisations crept up by six per cent on last week but deaths fell by around 16 per cent over the same time-frame. Both measures are just a fraction of the level seen during previous waves because of the success of jabs but will rise over the coming weeks because of a delay between getting infected and becoming seriously ill.
Health chiefs today recorded another 448 cases of Omicron, taking the official toll to 1,265. The true toll will be much higher because not every sample is rigorously analysed in a lab.
Separate estimates suggest the real toll could be more than 4,000 cases per day based on evidence showing the strain is already making up nearly 13 per cent of new infections.
It came as it emerged that the UK Government is already working on a ‘Plan C’ of Covid restrictions, just days after Boris Johnson triggered his ‘Plan B’.
Michael Gove is due to hold a COBRA meeting this afternoon with the first ministers of the devolved administrations to discuss the latest Covid data and the UK response.
But No10 insists it has ‘no plans’ for a Plan C or a circuit breaker lockdown over Christmas. The Prime Minister’s official spokesperson said: ‘We think the Plan B measures are the right approach and strike the right balance.’
