National Grid warns electricity supplies will be tight this year
Now National Grid warns of a greater risk of BLACKOUTS in Britain this winter because electricity supplies will be ‘tight’ after undersea cable fire – as Putin drives up gas prices, inflation soars and supply chain crisis threatens food shortages
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Britain faces an electricity shortage this winter after a fire disrupted a vital cable bringing power from France – loading fresh pressure onto a system that is already struggling due to high demand and limited supply.
Industry leaders called for ‘urgent action’ after the National Grid warned electricity supplies would be ‘tight’ – in the latest sign of a grim outlook for the country amid soaring inflation and a supply chain crisis that threatens food shortages.
The fire at a connector station in Kent last month had cut the amount of energy that can be imported via the 1FA undersea cable – which runs under the English Channel to Calais – by half.
By October 23, 1GW of power should be restored following repairs, but the full capacity of 2GW will not be reached until more work due to last until March next year.
The disruption adds to an existing energy crisis, with the cost of wholesale electricity rocketing in response to an astonishing spike in the price of natural gas, which accounts for around 40% of power generation in Britain.
Gas is in high demand due to the reopening of the global economy, colder temperatures, and reduced wind and solar output due to unfavourable conditions. Meanwhile, Russia – a major exporter – has slashed the amount it sends to Europe.
The cost of wholesale electricity is rocketing in response to an astonishing spike in the price of natural gas, which accounts for around 40% of power generation in Britain
This graphic – from today’s National Grid report – shows how Britain imports far more energy from abroad than it exports
Coal now produces just 2% of the UK’s energy – with 40% of it coming from zero carbon sources following massive investment in renewables
In a separate winter gas outlook also published today, National Grid insisted Britain has enough gas supply capacity to meet demand and avoid blackouts.
The National Grid is responsible for overseeing the country’s energy supply and ensuring supply and demand are evenly balanced. The Electricity System Operator (ESO) is a legally separate business within National Grid.
The ESO said its base case for de-rated margin, which is a measure of the amount of excess capacity expected above peak electricity demand, is currently 3.9 gigawatts (GW) for winter 2021/22, or 6.6 % of capacity, down from 4.8GW, or 8.3% last winter.
‘We are confident that there will be enough capacity available to keep Britain’s lights on,’ Fintan Slye, executive director of ESO, said in a statement with the Winter Outlook 2021/22 report.
The latest forecast, however, is lower than a winter margin forecast of 4.3 GW made in July this year and also the lowest margin level since the winter of 2016/17.
The National Grid said the incident at a connector station in Kent had cut the amount of energy that can be imported via the 1FA undersea cable by half (pictured is the aftermath of the incident on September 16)
A map showing the various electricity cables that bring in electricity to the UK from the rest of Europe. The IFA link is seen bottom right in green
This graphic shows how electricity is brought in from France via the 1FA link. Converter stations are needed to switch converts direct current to alternating current or the reverse, while the connector links it with the National Grid
Forward power prices in Britain are expected to be higher this winter than last year due to the surge in gas prices.
Any days of tight margins could see significant price spikes and would increase the cost of balancing the electricity system, the report said.
Since the ESO’s July forecast, a fire at the United Kingdom side of the France-Britain IFA1 electricity interconnector has cut available capacity through the link by half, or 1 GW, until March next year.
The other 1 GW capacity of the IFA1 link is currently offline due to planned maintenance and is scheduled to be back online by Oct. 23, with the returning capacity factored into National Grid’s forecasts.
At times of tight demand ESO sometimes issues electricity margin notices (EMNs) signalling to the market it would like more capacity to be made available.
‘Margin notices are used as a normal operational tool to highlight when margins are looking tight ahead of real-time – they don’t indicate that demand will not be met,’ the report said.
The ESO said it expects to issue a similar number of EMNs this winter as last year, when six were issued. In each instance last winter, the market reacted and the EMNs were later cancelled.
