Covid cases could hit 100,000 a day by July 19, surveillance study suggests

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Thousands of jubilant England fans gave up on wearing face masks and caring about social distancing in the fight against Covid last night as they poured out of Wembley following the Three Lions’ nail-biting Euro 2020 semi-final victory over Denmark.

More than 66,000 people packed the stands in Britain’s biggest post-pandemic crowd, with all supporters told to stay in their seat throughout the game, keep their coverings on whenever they stood up, and to avoid hugging and high fiving when celebrating crucial moments.

But pictures taken as the stadium began to empty out at around 11pm showed how hundreds of ecstatic fans had disregarded the threat of coronavirus and advice to keep socially distant. Masks are not compulsory in crowded outdoor areas but experts say wearing them would help cut the spread of Covid.

The scenes of joy following England’s 2-1 victory over Denmark in extra-time came just hours before top scientists warned the football tournament had driven a spike in coronavirus cases that could see the country’s daily infection toll breach 100,000 by July 19.

A major surveillance study estimated cases are now doubling every six days and found that infections in England quadrupled in June, with the rise clearly coinciding with the competition. Men are also now around 30 per cent more likely to test positive than women, despite rates being similar throughout the pandemic.

Imperial College London researchers, who analysed the data, claimed the pattern may be down to Euro 2020, with men gathering in pubs and homes to watch every step of the Three Lions’ journey. 

But with England gearing up for their first major final in 55 years when they face Italy on Sunday, there are fears it may only get worse. Doctors in Scotland, which saw a similar football-driven spike before the nation was knocked out in the group stages, said it was ‘better from a Covid perspective’ that the country never made the final stages of the competition.

Lead author Professor Steven Riley said: ‘I think the degree to which men and women are socialising is likely to be responsible. It could be that watching football is resulting in men having more social activity than usual.

‘If I had to speculate about the impact of the Euros I would first think about the increased probability that people are mixing inside more.’

But Professor Martin McKee, an expert in public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told MailOnline that the virus was less likely to spread at the match itself — and the greater risk was posed by fans celebrating in packed bars and congregating on public transport. 

With cases now around 25,000 a day across England, the data suggests the country may break through the six-figure barrier on Freedom Day, with the ‘big bang’ unlocking just 12 days away.

Boris Johnson admitted daily cases could run at 50,000 by the time the country reopens on July 19, while new Health Secretary Sajid Javid said the Government was prepared for about 100,000 in August. But the hope within Government is that cases will fall sharply after the peak because the virus will ‘run out of people to infect’.

Infections have risen ten-fold in London over the past month, according to the study, and the authors warned the capital’s rapid rise may be linked to Euro 2020 matches held at Wembley.

Social distancing rules tell fans to stay in their seat during games, keep their distance from others where possible and wear masks when not seated. They also encourage those at games to avoid hugging and high fives during games.

But thousands ignored the guidelines, with fans sent into dreamland when captain Harry Kane scored England’s second goal by pouncing on the rebound of his saved penalty. The rules only applied within the stadium itself — but face masks are still compulsory on public transport. 

Discussing the findings, Professor Riley said: ‘My first thought wouldn’t immediately be to Wembley, but more about general behaviour in the population.’

However, in a positive sign, unvaccinated Britons were found to be three times more likely to have Covid than those who had received both doses of the vaccine.    

The REACT-1 study, which is commissioned by the Government, sends out swabs to a representative sample of households across England to track the pandemic.

Around 50,000 people were tested in the most recent round of the study between June 24 and July 5, regardless of whether they had symptoms. 

The study concluded cases are increasing in all age groups and regions as England experiences a ‘substantial third wave of infections’. 

There were 237 positive tests, which the scientists estimated meant the virus had a prevalence of around 0.59 per cent — the equivalent of one in 170 people.

This was up on last month when just 0.15 per cent of swabs detected the virus, and a six-fold surge on the low-point in May when 0.10 per cent tested positive. 

Men were more likely to have Covid than women for the first time since March last year, according to the study, with 0.71 per cent of men estimated to be infected compared to 0.47 per cent of women.

London saw the sharpest spike in cases with 1.08 per cent of residents now thought to have the virus, compared to 0.13 per cent in the previous month.

Yorkshire and the Humber was estimated to have the second highest rate, with 0.78 per cent of residents sampled testing positive, followed by the North East with 0.72 per cent.

And Britons aged between 13 and 24 were also most likely to be infected with the coronavirus, with more than 1.3 per cent testing positive.

Asked whether the surges in men and younger age groups could be attributed to the Euros, Professor Riley said: ‘I think fluctuations in transmission are likely to be caused by changes in social mixing. 

‘There is lots of evidence that mixing inside more often is more likely to cause transmission.’

He said the difference between the genders was ‘to do with changes in social mixing pattern’, adding that ‘one can speculate as to why that might be’.

Asked by MailOnline whether Britons should be concerned about the spike in Covid cases, he said: ‘From a health policy point of view it is reasonable to be a bit more concerned because things are going up a bit quicker.

‘We need to watch the hospitalisations a bit more closely, because these will likely also rise faster.’

Professor McKee told MailOnline: ‘The association between spikes in cases and football matches is complicated. 

‘We did see clear increases associated with the England Scotland match and when Finnish supporters went to St Petersburg. 

‘However the risk is less likely to be at the match, where spectators are in the open, but in enclosed spaces such as bars and public transport. 

‘Crucially, the risk is determined by the probability that someone in the crowd has Covid and that is becoming much more likely now as cases are soaring.’

The latest REACT-1 study also found cases were three times higher among Britons who had not been vaccinated, compared to those who received both doses.

Results showed 1.09 per cent of Britons who had not got either jab would test positive for the virus on any day over the two weeks to July 5. For comparison, among those who had received both doses only 0.30 per cent would test positive.

Covid infections have risen among double-vaccinated Britons from the previous month when 0.06 per cent were estimated to have the virus. 

But the experts said the rise was to be expected because the vaccines are ‘not perfect’ and do not always prevent people getting infected. The current crop of jabs cut the risk of severe illness by around 95 per cent, however. 

Professor Paul Elliot, one of the researchers, said: ‘In spite of the successful vaccine roll out of the vaccination programme, we are still seeing rapid growth in infections especially among young people.

‘However, it is encouraging to see lower infection prevalence in people who have had both doses of a vaccine. It is therefore essential that as many people as possible take up both vaccine doses when offered.’

Vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi said: ‘It is hugely encouraging to see the vaccination roll out is having a significant impact on stopping the spread of the virus. Almost two thirds of adults — 64 per cent — have had both doses, and so have got the fullest protection on offer.

‘I urge everyone to get their first and second dose when invited, as every jab helps to curb transmission and serious illness. 

‘The small number of people who are double jabbed and experience symptoms should get tested so we all play our part to stop the spread of this awful virus.’

Health Secretary Sajid Javid said: ‘As we unlock society and learn to live with Covid, we will inevitably see cases rise significantly over the coming weeks. It is vital people practice good sense and take personal responsibility for their own health hand those around them.’ 

Mr Javid admitted in the Commons yesterday that Britain could suffer 100,000 infections a day by next month, as the Government pushes ahead with ‘Freedom Day’. 

But he said there would only be half this number by the unlocking, echoing comments from the Prime Minister on Monday at a Downing Street press conference. 

The Health Secretary gave the grim figure as he insisted Boris Johnson was right to continue with the dramatic unlocking on July 19, saying hospitalisations and deaths were what mattered.

He claimed further delay would run the risk of trying to reopen in autumn or winter when the virus ‘has an edge’.

There are mounting fears in official circles that the Euro 2020 games are sparking growing outbreaks in England, amid the Three Lions’ success in the tournament. 

Ministers said yesterday there were ‘no guarantees’ that huge crowds cramming into Wembley would not spark outbreaks amid claims of Cabinet anxiety over the risks.

More than 60,000 fans were expected to attend England’s semi-final with Denmark, as well as the final on Sunday with the stadium now at 75 per cent capacity.

The social distancing rules tell fans to stay in their seat during games, maintain their distance from others where possible and wear face masks when not seated. They also encourage those at games to avoid hugging and high fives during games but thousands ignored the guidelines during Italy’s semi-final victory against Spain last night.

Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng insisted the potential problems can be ‘managed’ ahead of the crucial match.

But some ministers are understood to be concerned that matches at the London stadium could be fuelling sharp rises in cases.

One Cabinet source told MailOnline that it was ‘fair’ to say nerves are jangling. ‘As we continue the greater likelihood these things are going to happen,’ they said. 

Mr Kwarteng said: ‘I think we can manage this risk but to say there is no risk, if you have thousands of people in one place. There’s always risk in life.

‘I think we’re managing the risk. I’m confident there won’t be a big outbreak but we can’t guarantee that now.’

Official figures from Scotland showed there were nearly 1,300 Covid cases linked to fans travelling to London for Euro-related events as the nation faced England in the group stages.

That included 397 people who attended the clash in Wembley on June 18, according to Public Health Scotland.

But the outbreak north of the border now appears to be falling in the wake of the Scottish team falling out of the Euros. 

More than 45.5million Britons — or 86.4 per cent of adults — have got one dose and 34million people — or 64.6 per cent — have got both doses. 

Although cases are rising exponentially, hospitalisations remain low thanks to the vaccination drive. There were 386 admissions due to the virus on July 3, the latest available, far below when there were more than 20,000 cases a day during the second wave. 

Now for the historic hangovers! England fans party into the night as they celebrate the nerve-shredding semi-final win with beers, cheers and tears of delight

England fans will wake up nursing a national hangover this morning after thousands of supporters partied through the night following the country’s historic victory at Wembley last night. 

Scores of supporters prepared to call in sick for work today following a night of booze-fuelled partying after the Three Lions defeated Denmark 2-1 during a nail-biting showdown in front of 60,000 spectators at the Wembley Stadium. 

Last night’s victory is a historic achievement for England and ended their 55-year wait to qualify for a major final – sealing their place in Sunday’s final against Italy.

The scenes of celebration came as police revealed 20 arrests have been made by officers for a number of offences including common assault, public order and assault on police. 

Following England’s victory, crowds of fans in Wembley leapt onto their seats and waved their flags in the air as Gareth Southgate’s squad beat their rivals following a nerve-shredding thriller.

And in London’s Trafalgar Square, hundreds of fans were seen blocking traffic as the celebrations poured onto the streets.

Some formed an impromptu mosh pit in front of the big screens while others grouped together at the London landmark with chants of ‘Southgate you’re the one’ and ‘Don’t take me home’ ringing out.

Fans with flags were also spotted lighting red flares and sending smoke through the night sky as around 50 officers stood in attendance, watching from a distance.    

Car horns also blared from the roads in an attempt to join in with the celebrations as shirtless fans threw beer into the air.

Music royalty manager Roisin Brophy, 31, from Bath, said: ‘It’s a once-in-a-lifetime moment and incredible to experience it in Trafalgar Square. Football could be coming home, and this is lifting the whole country after Covid.’ 

Accountant Paul Mehta, 38, from South London, said: ‘The beers have been flowing and Italy will be tough in the final, but we can do it.

‘The players will be real heroes if we win it. Southgate got his decisions right for the semi, and the players are performing well for him.’

Vic Richards, 22, from Croydon, south London, said: ‘I’m still trying to compute what happened, I’ve never seen England make a final.

‘It’s beautiful, it’s unbelievable, I love this country, the players gave it their all. This is an historic occasion, we may never see this again- now we can start to believe.’ 

England are now just one game from football glory after they secured a spectacular victory over Denmark after Harry Kane’s extra-time penalty-kick secured the Three Lions’ place in Sunday’s Euro 2020 final against Italy.     

Following England’s spectacular victory, window cleaner Terry Johnson, 72, of Partington, Greater Manchester, who watched the 1966 World Cup Final in his sitting room, said: ‘It’s amazing. I have waited more than 50 years to see us in another final and it’s happened.

‘I am so happy especially for those who have not seen us in a final. I watched the World Cup final win with my nine brothers and sisters. And now I get the chance to see us win something again. I’m confident we go on and lift trophy.’

And hairdresser Jane Brooks, 23, of Blackpool, Lancashire, said: ‘That was incredible. It was so nervy but the boys did it.

‘Gareth has everyone bouncing. It feels like we have won the lottery. I can’t wait for the final.’

Earlier tonight, excited fans eager to soak up the atmosphere, donned replica kits, face paint and fancy dress as they began to arrive to the Wembley Stadium before kick-off. 

Meanwhile thousands were seen filling out the tables and enjoying a drink at Boxpark in Croydon ahead of the eagerly anticipated game. 

One supporter, Chris Flood, 38, from Croydon, said: ‘We’re going to win it. Obviously penalties are 50/50 but it’s not going to happen, the way England have been playing.’ 

And Estelle Vella, 29, a product developer also from Croydon, said: ‘We’ve got a great team. Harry Kane is on top form and with Raheem Sterling up front, we can’t lose.’  

Another fan at Croydon’s Boxpark, Jack Hockney, 22, from Enfield, said: ‘No nerves, no nerves around here. We’ve not conceded a goal, we’re not going to concede a goal. It’s coming home.’