Sadiq Khan and Shaun Bailey ‘closer than expected’ in London mayor count

Tory hopes of an astonishing victory in the London mayoral election rose today with Shaun Bailey keeping track of Sadiq Khan in early vote counting.

Mr Bailey, who polled a distant second to the Labour incumbent before Thursday’s election, was just 2 per cent behind this evening, with the two on 39 and 37 per cent respectively. 

He was given a further boon by winning the most votes in the Ealing and Hillingdon constituency.

The Conservative candidate scored 79,863 first preference votes, ahead of his Labour rival, Sadiq Khan, who scored 74,854 votes. The Green Party’s Sian Berry was third, with 13,041 votes. 

The final results are not due to drop until Saturday night at the earliest, meaning it could be an anxious weekend for Labour.

A Labour source admitted: ‘We think it will be close. There is no chance of winning on the first round.

‘We are definitely seeing the product of lower turnout and complacency from voters who believed it was safe to put a candidate from a smaller party as first preference.’

Sadiq Khan (LEFT) and Tory challenger Shaun Bailey (right) were virtually neck and neck after nearly a quarter of votes were counted – although it is thought Conservative strongholds are counting faster

The counting of votes is being tracked live on the official London elections site

Sources in the Bailey camp suggest their hopes are rising off the back of the early results, with the two front-runners close in areas Mr Khan won by miles in 2016. 

But it is thought Conservative strongholds are counting faster, and Labour will take some comfort from the fact that due to the voting system used, Mr Khan could lose the first round vote and still win in the second round.

Mr Khan, a Remainer, had been expected to romp home in the capital, which voted heavily against Brexit.

Polls last month suggested that he would gain more than 50 per cent of the vote – enough to knock out Conservative opponent Shaun Bailey in the first round under the supplementary voting system used in the election.

But, with counting not due to finish until Saturday afternoon, sources on both sides suggested that the contest was proving closer than predicted.

Tory insiders said Mr Bailey was still expected to lose, but could cut Mr Khan’s lead to ‘single digits’. A source said: ‘Shaun has fought a good campaign and you have seen the Prime Minister alongside him in recent days. But London was always going to be very tough.’

But Labour refused to rule out a shock defeat for Mr Khan. A source said: ‘We always said it would be a close election. There is no question we are seeing significant impact from turnout and voter complacency.

Counting has been continuing at Alexandra Palace in London this afternoon

‘There are still half of London boroughs to count and it’s too early to say anything with any certainty.’

Mr Bailey, a former youth worker, was fiercely critical of Mr Khan’s record on tackling a wave of knife crime, which has plagued the capital. He also pledged to increase the strength of the Metropolitan Police to 40,000 officers.

Mr Khan has sought to blame the Government for a financial crisis faced by the capital’s transport network in the wake of the pandemic.

Allies of Mr Khan have been warning that they expect a much tighter result than looked likely until the past week.

The dire performance of Labour nationally and in the Hartlepool by-election has also set nerves jangling. 

One senior source told MailOnline that the result could be narrower than in 2016 against Zac Goldsmith. ‘I think it will be closer than last time,’ they said.

A YouGov poll yesterday gave Mr Khan a 12-point lead, based on first preference votes, down from 21 points a month ago. 

It suggested Mr Khan will win the contest in a second round run-off with Mr Bailey by 59 per cent to 41 per cent.

Knife crime in the capital has increased by more than 60 per cent between May 2016, when Mr Khan took office, and March last year, according to the Office for National Statistics. 

There have been Labour worries that Mr Khan support could be cut following a spate of knife killings.

An Opinium survey this week showed 52 per cent of Londoners think tackling knife crime should be the next mayor’s top priority.

Mr Khan, along with wife Saadiya and their dog Luna, voted at St Albans Church in south London, yesterday before a frantic effort to get out the vote.

Mr Bailey cast his ballot with wife Ellie at Drapers’ Pyrgo Priory School in Romford.