Covid UK: Britain records another 12,027 cases plunging by 20% in a week and deaths fall by a third

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Britain today recorded another 12,027 coronavirus cases and 533 deaths, as an array of official data confirmed the second wave is still firmly in retreat and piled further pressure on Boris Johnson to drastically ease restrictions in the coming weeks.

Department of Health data showed infections had fallen by 20 per cent week-on-week, and the number of victims of the disease plunged by a third. In other promising news, almost 17million Britons have now also received their first dose of a Covid vaccine.

It comes as No10’s top scientific advisers today predicted Britain’s R rate – the average number of people each coronavirus patient passes the disease on to – was between 0.6 and 0.9. Last week it stood at 0.7 to 0.9 and two weeks ago they warned it could be above the crucial level of one, suggesting the second wave was stable.

Separate figures from one of the UK’s most respected coronavirus surveillance studies today showed the number of people infected in England has fallen by nearly 50 per cent in the last fortnight.

Office for National Statistics (ONS) experts estimated 481,300 people in the nation would test positive for Covid on any given day in the week to February 12 – the equivalent of one in 115 people. For comparison, the figure was around 850,000 two weeks ago.

And in yet more proof that the second wave is firmly in retreat, hospitals are now also treating fewer coronavirus patients than they were during the darkest days of the first wave last spring. The number of NHS beds taken up by Covid-infected Britons has halved since January to around 20,000.

The catalogue of promising data – combined with Britain’s successful vaccine roll-out – will pile more pressure on Mr Johnson to drastically ease restrictions when he unveils his roadmap back to normality on Monday. Anti-lockdown Tory MPs have urged the PM to scrap economically-crippling measures as quickly as possible.

The Prime Minister has promised to rely on ‘data not dates’ in his blueprint to leaving lockdown, amid hopes the UK may never need another blanket shutdown to contain Covid and that life could be a lot more normal’ by May. Pubs and restaurants will likely be the final parts of the economy allowed to fully reopen under the cautious approach.

But even SAGE scientists – who have offered gloomy predictions throughout the pandemic – have admitted the data is pointing in the right direction. One epidemiologist advising No10 told MPs that ministers should be looking at easing restrictions earlier, if they were truly following the evidence.

But other researchers tracking the UK’s shrinking second wave have flagged it may now no longer be dropping as rapidly as it once was. The King’s College London symptom-tracking app today estimated there were 14,064 new symptomatic infections every day during the week ending February 14 – just 5 per cent down in a week.

In another day of coronavirus news:

• NHS Figures reveal parts of the UK are already jabbing over-50s without underlying conditions… even though some London boroughs have only jabbed 60 per cent of elderly residents;
• Experts say the UK will be ‘a lot more normal’ by May even if Boris Johnson adopts a more cautious roadmap for easing lockdown measures;
• Rishi Sunak is considering extending the furlough scheme until the summer at a cost of at least £10billion, reports suggest;
• Only half of Covid jab appointments are being used up at mass vaccination centre in Manchester;
• Over-40s could get letters inviting them to Covid jabs by the end of March when rollout will be widened beyond top priority groups;
• Government ‘increasingly positive’ Britons will be able to have a foreign break this year;
• Pfizer’s vaccine is 85 per cent effective after one dose and blocks 75 per cent of transmission, Israeli study finds in huge boost to decision to delay doses;
• Sadiq Khan, 50, gets first Covid vaccine after being invited by GP due to his severe asthma. 

Department of Health data also revealed the infection rate dropped below 50 cases per 100,000 residents in Devon in the week ending February 14, the latest date available, after it fell to 46.1 per 100,000. 

Sage scientists said today the R rate remained below one, marking a clear signal the second wave is firmly in retreat.

When the R rate is at this level it indicates not everyone infected with the virus is passing it on to someone else, triggering a reduction in the size of the outbreak.

The rate was lowest in London, the East of England and the South East, where it had fallen to between 0.6 and 0.9.

But they warned it may have ticked up as high as 1 in the North East and Yorkshire, which suggests the number of cases in the region may no longer be shrinking. Sage scientists still said, however, they thought infections were dropping by between one and five per cent a day in the area.

The ONS infection survey, also published today, estimated the number of infections in the UK using random swabbing carried out on more than 100,000 Britons.

The measure is seen as the gold-standard by ministers because it can pick up asymptomatic infections, that are missed by testing, and also account for those that don’t come forward for a swab because they do not want to be asked to self-isolate. 

Across the country it found the positivity rate – the proportion of all swabs estimated that would be positive – was highest in Northern Ireland, where it was 0.97 per cent – equivalent to 1 in 105 people having Covid. 

It was second highest in England where 0.88 per cent would test positive, equivalent to 1 in 115 people. And third highest in Wales with a rate at 0.81 per cent, equal to 1 in 125. Scotland had the lowest positivity rate in the UK at 0.55 per cent, equivalent to 1 in 180.

The ONS also predicted the infection rate across the country was lowest among those aged over 70, who are most at risk of hospitalisation or death if they catch the virus. It is not clear whether this is due to the rollout, but scientists say they are starting to see the first signs in data that the jabs are ‘doing their job’ by preventing infections and transmission.

The second lowest rate was among children aged seven to 11. Boris Johnson is under mounting pressure to allow pupils to get back behind their desks soon, and will unveil his ‘roadmap’ back to normal on Monday.

The Kent variant of the virus was also still the dominant strain across the UK, and in all four nations. There are now more than 200 cases of the South African variant – which can make jabs less effective – in the country, and ministers are attempting to snuff out the outbreaks by testing everyone in postcodes where they were detected. 

Top Sage advisers have warned the UK needs to get its Covid case levels down to just 10,000 infections before Boris Johnson should begin to reopen society.

Professor Kevin McConway, a statistician at the Open University, today said the drops in the R rate and ONS figures were ‘more good news on top of a week of good news’. He added, however: ‘There is still a long way to go. Vaccinations will help more and more, but things are nowhere near back to normal yet and won’t be for a long time.’

Amid more promising statistics, Department of Health data on Covid hospital occupancy has fallen below the levels seen during the darkest days of the first wave. Some 20,156 beds were taken up by Covid patients on February 16, the latest date available. For comparison, there were 21,000 Covid patients needing treatment on the worst days of the first wave in April last year.

In intensive cares, the numbers have also fallen as there were 2,614 patients requiring mechanical ventilation on Wednesday, compared to 4,077 on January 25. 

Saffron Cordery, deputy chief executive of NHS Providers, told The Times that the country was at a ‘critical juncture’, with hospital staff ‘exhausted’. She urged Boris Johnson to wait for a ‘return to more normal levels of NHS capacity’ before lifting restrictions.

‘Lessons must be learnt from the past year if this is to be the last national lockdown,’ she added. 

Amid the promising statistics, however, the ZOE Covid Symptom Study app, also published today, warned the second wave may have started to plateau across the UK.

It added the R rate – measuring the spread of the disease – may have risen to 1 in Yorkshire, the East Midlands and the North East as well as as well as Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, suggesting the second wave is no longer shrinking in these areas.

They estimated the areas with the highest infection rates were Lancashire, Blackpool and Blackburn with Darwen where 1 in 277 residents was thought to have the virus. They were followed by Greater Manchester, with 1 in 287 and the Liverpool City region with 1 in 337. 

The app relies on daily reports from more than a million Britons on whether they are feeling unwell, and whether they have tested positive for the virus. But it is only able to pick up infections that are symptomatic, and cannot detect those that don’t trigger warning signs – thought to be at least a third of all cases. 

Professor Tim Spector, a top epidemiologist who leads the app, said the fall in infections has begun to ‘plateau’ compared to the last six weeks where it plummeted.

‘This is mainly true in places like Scotland, Wales, and the Midlands compared to London and the East,’ he said. ‘It’s unclear why this is happening, although people relaxing their guard after vaccination or altering behaviour in the cold weather are possible.

‘But it’s encouraging that Covid-related hospital admissions are still falling and much lower than at the peak. With cases still falling in the at-risk age groups and the vaccination roll out continuing there is still reason to be hopeful – but we clearly can’t be complacent.’

The King’s College London scientist also called on the NHS to expand its list of Covid symptoms – high temperature, continuous cough and loss of taste and smell – to ensure that as many cases are detected as possible.

At present, only those suffering the three key warning signs are encouraged to get a test. But mountains of research has shown the virus can trigger many other symptoms in the early stages, including fatigue, diarrhoea and a sore or white tongue.

‘We are pushing for the list to be expanded to help us pick up more cases and drive down the number of cases,’ he said. ‘It’s also important for any new variants that may cause different symptoms. For us, the message for the public is clear: If you’re feeling newly unwell, it could be Covid and you should get a test.’

It comes as data from the Department of Health shows the number of Covid patients in hospital has nearly halved since January. Almost 40,000 beds were taken up by the infected during the peak of the second wave last month. 

And the number of patients on ventilation beds has also plunged by 36 per cent in a month. 

Saffron Cordery, deputy chief executive of NHS Providers, told The Times that the country was at a ‘critical juncture’, with hospital staff ‘exhausted’.

She urged Boris Johnson to wait for ‘a return to more normal levels of NHS capacity’ before lifting restrictions.

She said: ‘Lessons must be learnt from the past year if this is to be the last national lockdown.’ 

Some 2,614 patients requiring intensive care on mechanical ventilation beds on Wednesday, compared to 4,077 on January 25. 

Public Health England’s data yesterday showed the infection rate among children aged 10 to 19 was at 86.2 per 100,000 in the second week of February, the latest available.

This is below every week since the seven-day spell ending September 26, when it was 53.4 per 100,000. 

Public Health England’s medical director Yvonne Doyle said: ‘Our efforts are working as case rates, hospitalisation rates and deaths are slowly falling. 

‘The number of new infections is higher than the end of September and remains concerning. 

‘This could increase very quickly if we do not follow the current measures. Although it is difficult, we must continue to stay home and protect lives.’ 

Covid cases also dropped in every age group and plunged by 38 per cent among the over-80s – who are most at risk of being hospitalised or dying if they catch the virus – to 129.6 per 100,000.

The infection rate was highest in 30 to 39-year-olds (192.5 per 100,000), followed by 20 to 29-year-olds (173.4 per 100,000) and 40 to 49-year-olds (162.9 per 100,000).