Analysis: Two impeachment trials in less than two years. Here’s how we got here
The outcome of the trial is really not in doubt. Trump is poised to be acquitted by the Senate, where it would take a two-thirds vote to convict him. At least 17 Republicans would need to join all of the Senate Democrats to convict.
However, the trial will still bring drama. Trump is not expected to appear, after his lawyers rejected a Democratic request to testify.
His lawyers are expected to argue that the Senate cannot impeach a former president and that Trump’s January 6 speech at the White House Ellipse preceding the US Capitol insurrection was protected by the First Amendment.
The House impeachment managers will argue that Trump is “singularly responsible” for inciting the insurrection, and that he should be barred from holding future office.
How long will the trial last? That’s an open question at this point. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and their aides have been engaged in extensive discussions about the trial’s organizing resolution, which the Senate will pass before arguments begin.
Both sides hope to reach a bipartisan agreement on the trial’s parameters, which will include how long the impeachment managers and defense team get to make their arguments, how witnesses could be called and other matters.
Two impeachments in two years
Trump made history as the only impeached President to run for reelection, and then last month — after his loss to Biden was sealed — became the only President in US history to be impeached twice.
Let’s review exactly how we got here.
‘Stop the Steal’
The conspiracy theory Trump laid out then metastasized into the defining message of Trump’s final weeks in office as he and his allies in conservative media and Congress sought to sow doubt not just over Biden’s win but over the integrity of the US election system.
But Trump remained undeterred by that reality. Instead of accepting his loss and moving toward a transition, he and his allies set their sights on Congress’ largely ceremonial role in certifying Electoral College votes on January 6 as a final stage where the will of the voters could be subverted.
This culminated in Trump’s speech near the White House. The President told a crowd of supporters to march to the Capitol building, where Congress was set to formalize his loss in a gathering presided over by Vice President Mike Pence.
“We’re going to walk down to the Capitol. And we’re gonna cheer on our brave senators and congressmen and women. And we’re probably not going to be cheering so much for some of them, because you’ll never take back our country with weakness, you have to show strength and you have to be strong,” he said at that rally, less than an hour before the certification was due to begin.
Only after pleading from aides and congressional allies inside the besieged building did Trump release a video urging the rioters to “go home,” while still fanning their baseless grievances about a stolen election. “We love you,” Trump said. “You’re very special.” Later, he seemed to justify the actions in a tweet, writing, “These are the things and events that happen when a sacred landslide election victory is so unceremoniously & viciously stripped away.”
Congress reconvened later that night to complete its task, and Biden’s win was certified in the early hours of January 7 — a step delayed by the decision of Missouri Republican Sen. Josh Hawley to proceed with an objection to counting Biden’s victory in Pennsylvania.
Democrats act fast
Democrats moved quickly after the insurrection to organize an impeachment effort over Trump’s role in whipping up the mob.
“It is the hope of Members that the President will immediately resign. But if he does not, I have instructed the Rules Committee to be prepared to move forward with Congressman Jamie Raskin’s 25th Amendment legislation and a motion for impeachment,” Pelosi said at the time.
“Accordingly, the House will preserve every option — including the 25th Amendment, a motion to impeach or a privileged resolution for impeachment.”
“In all this, President Trump gravely endangered the security of the United States and its institutions of Government,” the resolution said.
“He threatened the integrity of the democratic system, interfered with the peaceful transition of power, and imperiled a coequal branch of Government. He thereby betrayed his trust as President, to the manifest injury of the people of the United States.”
The House voted to impeach Trump 232 to 197 two days after their resolution was formally introduced, and exactly one week after rioters forced lawmakers to flee from the very chamber in which they cast ballots.
Senate trial delay
The delay also — critically — allowed the immediate shock to subside and gave Republicans a window to get a sense of support for impeachment within their party.
Initially several Republicans claimed they were keeping an open mind, but as more time has passed, GOP leaders have become increasingly bullish that Trump isn’t at risk of conviction.
Democrats and Republicans alike have pointed to the vote on Paul’s point of order as a measure for how the trial’s final vote will likely land. And McConnell sided with Paul in the vote — suggesting his initial signals that he might be open to convicting Trump are not likely to result in him voting that way.
The current reality
That brings us to now.
“President Trump’s effort to extend his grip on power by fomenting violence against Congress was a profound violation of the oath he swore,” the House impeachment team wrote. “If provoking an insurrectionary riot against a Joint Session of Congress after losing an election is not an impeachable offense, it is hard to imagine what would be.”