Covid care home deaths rose by 66% in a fortnight in England and Wales

The number of care home residents who died with Covid-19 in England and Wales rose by more than 67 per cent in a fortnight in mid-November.

Data from the Official for National Statistics show that 467 care home residents died with the disease in the third week of the month, up from 425 a week before and 280 the week before that. 

Until November, care homes’ death tolls had stayed relatively low during the UK’s second wave, with weekly fatalities at or below 150 per week for the eight weeks of September and October.

The numbers pale in comparison to up to 2,800 per week during the first peak of the epidemic in April.

But they have crept up in the past fortnight as outbreaks triggered by soaring cases among members of the public have taken effect on people living in care homes, who are the most vulnerable to coronavirus and most likely to die if they catch it.

The ONS report also showed that the number of people dying of Covid-19 across the country continued rising into mid-November, more than a week after England’s second national lockdown started. 

A total of 2,697 coronavirus deaths were registered in the week that ended November 13, which was 231 more than the week before and accounted for more than a fifth (21.5 per cent) of the 12,535 deaths of all causes in that week.

Department of Health data shows, however, that deaths in all settings across the UK have now started to decline again, suggesting the peak of the second wave has passed, meaning care home deaths are unlikely to hit the same levels they did in spring.

But deaths will continue to rumble on as the numbers of new infections remains high – the daily average of positive tests is currently 14,778 for the UK as a whole – and one top statistician warned the death toll of the second wave is on course to hit 20,000 before Christmas.

University of Cambridge statistician Professor David Spiegelhalter today pointed out that Covid-19 is killing more than eight times as many people as flu and pneumonia.

While there were 280 deaths caused by flu or pneumonia in the week to November 13, there were 2,361 caused by Covid-19, the ONS report said. Deaths ‘involving’ Covid-19 were 2,697, while those involving flu numbered 2,605.

He added: ‘Between September 5 and November 20, 12,907 deaths involving Covid were registered in the UK, and there have been roughly 3,000 since then, making 16,000 altogether in the second wave. 

‘Sadly, the prediction that the second wave would involve tens of thousands of Covid deaths looks like it will be fulfilled, and we can expect this second-wave total to rise to over 20,000 by Christmas.

‘Once again, there were over 1,000 additional deaths in private homes compared with normal, a 40 per cent increase. This seems to be a long-term change in the way people are dying in this country, and deserves close attention.’

The ONS report showed that there were 2,446 deaths from all causes in care homes in the week ending November 13, of which 425 were caused by Covid-19 (17.3 per cent).

This was a slightly smaller proportion than in the general population, where the proportion of deaths caused by the virus was 21.5 per cent. 

In total, 12,535 people died in England and Wales in that week and 2,697 were linked to coronavirus.