SAGE scientist warns coronavirus is ‘running riot’ across ALL age groups
SAGE scientist warns Covid is ‘running riot’ across ALL age groups and hospitals are treating four times as many women aged 20-40 than men because they’re more likely to be in frontline jobs
- Professor John Edmunds and Professor Calum Semple said Tiers had failed
- They noted they had not stopped outbreaks growing after being imposed
- 130 of 150 local authorities in England are recording growing infections
SAGE scientists have warned coronavirus is ‘running riot’ across all age groups amid reports ministers will declare a second lockdown as early as next week.
And hospitals are treating four times more women aged between 20 and 40 than men. This is because women are more likely to work in educational and healthcare settings, they said, putting them at greater risk of being exposed to the virus.
Professor Calum Semple, from Liverpool University, warned on BBC Radio 4 today Britain’s second wave has spread across all age groups because there is no national lockdown to ‘protect huge swathes of society’.
‘It’s slightly slower growth than we had in the spring,’ he said, ‘but like a super-tanker it’s really moving now’.
Scientists have traded blows over whether a second lockdown should be imposed to curb the rising tide of infections, amid reports it could be brought into force as early as Wednesday.
Some warn the Three-Tier system has already failed, but others say the Government should find a way to ‘live with the virus’ instead of opting for repeated lockdowns.
Coronavirus cases in the UK have marched upwards since schools returned and parents went back to their offices in September.
In the latest data from Public Health England, 130 of 150 local authorities in England recorded rises in infections in the week ending October 24.
And ONS data from September 12 to October 23 shows infections are surging in all age groups, with the highest rates in 12 to 24 and 7 to 11 year olds.
The ONS estimates that coronavirus infections are surging in all age groups, but are rising fastest amongst 12 to 24 and 7 to 11-year-olds
Professor John Edmunds, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, warned the Government’s Tier system had failed. Professor Calum Semple, from Liverpool University, said the system had failed to stop the UK’s outbreak from spreading
Professor Semple said today the data clearly shows a ‘second wave’ is sweeping the UK.
‘We’ve got baked into the system many more cases, particularly in younger females between the ages of 20 and 40,’ he said.
‘We’re seeing three to four times as many women between the ages of 20 and 40 coming into hospital than men. Now that’s because they’re exposed in retail, hospitality and some educational settings.
‘So for the naysayers that don’t believe in a second wave, there is a second wave, and unlike the first wave where we had a national lockdown which protected huge swathes of society, this outbreak is now running riot across all age groups.’
Infections have continued to climb across the UK since mid-August, when the vast majority of local authorities were registering less than 20 cases per 100,000 people – the level at which the Government considers restrictions on travel to foreign countries.
Today all local authorities in the UK have case rates above this level.
The Three-Tier system, designed to curb the spread of the virus without the need to impose a national lockdown, came in for a roasting this morning amid reports a second lockdown is on the cards.
Professor Semple said although Tier Three – which sees the closure of pubs, bars and gyms – had slowed the spread of infections, cases were still rising.
‘The R number is still above one, so cases are still increasing, it’s just they’re starting to increase slightly slower,’ he said.
‘So even if we plateau on a tier three restriction, we’ll be plateauing at a bad place, and that’s why there’s advice about a national lockdown.’
Professor John Edmunds, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who also sits on SAGE, also slammed the Tier system – and said the UK has been above their worst-case scenario prediction for several weeks.
‘Tier Three (is) probably slowing the growth a little bit but it isn’t stopping it, nevermind reducing it,’ he warned.
‘If you assume that Tier Three will hold the reproduction number of one that means that places that are in Tier Three not only have very high incidence, but will continue to have very high incidence for the forseeable future. Meanwhile, the rest of the country catches up.’
Scientists think the testing system may be identifying less than half of all infections in the UK
Separate data from King’s College London predicted England has around 32,000 cases per day and claimed infections are rising ‘steadily’ and ‘have not spiralled out of control’
He added a second national lockdown could drive down cases enough to ensure families could enjoy Christmas together.
‘I think the idea of a lockdown is to save lives primarily,’ he argued, ‘and the only real way that we have to relatively save Christmas is to get the incidence rate right down’.
‘Otherwise, Christmas I think is very difficult for people and nobody wants to have a disrupted Christmas holiday period, where you can’t see your family and so on.
‘So I think the only way that that can be safely achieved is to bring the incidence rate right down and in order to do that we have to take action right now, and that action needs to be stringent unfortunately.’
Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, also slammed the Tier system this morning for failing to curb the spread of infections.
Professor Sunetra Gupta, from Oxford University, has called for a second lockdown to be avoided
‘Doctors and scientists agree that none of the current restrictions have been enough to stop the virus spreading,’ he said.
‘Without a change, the NHS would have been overwhelmed within weeks and it would have been difficult if not impossible to cope in the winter months with the inevitable increase in caring for people with Covid-19 as well as non-Covid illnesses.’
He added: ‘The only way to get things back to normal quickly is to get the virus under control as soon as possible.
‘The measures being reported today, if implemented and respected, will reduce transmission, get R below 1 and reset us to an earlier stage of the pandmiec.
‘This buys us time before we start to see treatments and vaccines in early 2021.’
But Oxford University scientist and co-founder of the Barrington Declaration Professor Sunetra Gupta said the Government should instead be considering finding ways to live with the virus as it could be around for the next ‘five to ten years’.
‘Infections are building now, because some areas do not have the immunity we would have expected had we not gone into complete lockdown,’ she said.
A national lockdown suggests ‘what we’re looking at are continued lockdowns over five to ten years – some people are predicting’.
Percentage change in coronavirus cases across England in the week to October 25: The five local authorities where the infection rate grew the most are: Kingston upon Hull City, 92.81 per cent; Derby, 91.84 per cent; North Somerset, 82.99 per cent; Medway, 77.17 per cent; and Bath and North East Somerset 69.72 per cent
The Barrington Declaration – signed by thousands of eminent scientists and public health professionals – calls on the Government to consider an alternative strategy for curbing the pandemic.
It warns that lockdowns have ruinous consequences for the nation – and will leave everyone feeling the impacts for years to come.
The Daily Mail exclusively revealed last night that ministers are considering putting the UK into a second national lockdown as early as Wednesday next week until December 1 – in order to save Christmas.
A cabinet source told the Mail about the dramatic move to blanket restrictions, with Mr Johnson expected to make the announcement on Monday with restrictions beginning on Wednesday.
But the Prime Minister this morning launched an inquiry into how the news was leaked.
Mr Johnson and Rishi Sunak have agonised over the decision for weeks because of fears it would do long-lasting and permanent damage to the economy.
Chris Snowdon, from the Institute of Economic Affairs, told MailOnline SAGE scientists couldn’t lose by calling for a national lockdown.
‘If it were up to SAGE we’d still be in the first,’ he said. ‘They’ve been calling for a second since we left the first, from their perspective they can’t really lose by calling it. But lockdown is not a viable solution.’
He warned it would effectively ‘double the damage’ from the first, and ‘in some ways would be worse because you already have businesses hanging by a thread’.
