Brits emerge from lockdown as new figures show rise in people outdoors

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Britain has emerged from its enforced hibernation to test lockdown rules this weekend as the government considers allowing people to gathering together in ‘bubbles’.  

Britons are hitting the roads again today as new data shows traffic congestion has surged from the start of the month.  

Walking in London has picked up in last three days alone – according to Apple Map’s most recent ‘Covid-19 mobility trends’ data – which shows a sharp increase in human traffic. 

Pictures this morning show busy scenes at B&Q stores and parks as people soak up the sunshine, while data from sat nav makers TomTom the AA has also shown an increase in car trips.

The new statistics emerge as former Chancellor Philip Hammond today called on the Government to publish an exit strategy and restart the economy, urging MPs to face the ‘reality’ that the UK must get back to work while people are still suffering with Covid-19.  

In a stark message this morning, he warned the economy ‘will not survive’ and said the country could not afford to wait until a vaccine had become available before resuming more normal economic activity. 

With Prime Minister Boris Johnson expected to return to Downing Street next week after recuperating from the virus, Mr Hammond said he hoped it would mark a ‘clear step change’ in the Government’s response to the crisis. 

This comes as it was revealed today that ministers are looking at whether to relax the strict ‘stay at home’ advice to let small groups of households ‘cluster’ together. 

It would allow a ‘bubble’ of up to ten close family members to meet for meals, or enable friends to share childcare. It could also allow couples who do not live together to see each other.

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said she is also considering relaxing the lockdown rules. 

But today, Priti Patel will read the riot act to the rule-breakers ignoring the coronavirus lockdown after scenes of crowds pouring into public places sent alarm bells ringing through government. 

Mr Hammond told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme: ‘The reality is that we have to start reopening the economy. But we have to do it living with Covid. We can’t wait until a vaccine is developed, produced in sufficient quantity and rolled out across the population. The economy won’t survive that long.

‘But we are going to have to do it alongside the measures that are in place to protect the population from Covid. That’s going to be a much more complex phase of this crisis than the initial acute phase.

‘Locking everything down and keeping everything locked down is relatively straightforward. The challenge of how to carefully, progressively, methodically reopen protecting both health and jobs is much, much more challenging and calls for a really skilful political leadership.’    

The Home Secretary will underscore her warning to stay indoors with the threat of beefing up the police’s powers to enforce social distancing.

There is growing concern over the extent of the economic impact of the lockdown if companies are not allowed to return in the next weeks. 

Chancellor Rishi Sunak has been looking at how to start allowing non-essential businesses to reopen in a ‘safe and practical way’, keeping coronavirus out of shared office spaces.

McDonald’s, British Steel and construction firm Persimmon were among the first high-profile companies to announce their intention to reopen in May, as the daily number of new cases of coronavirus should be in the low thousands by then.  

On another day in the fight against coronavirus, as Britain’s death tally edges closer to 20,000:

• Key workers have spoken of their frustration after places for a coronavirus test ran out within just an hour of the site opening today; 
• The World Health Organization said there was currently ‘no evidence’ that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second coronavirus infection;
• Boris Johnson is preparing to return to Downing Street on Monday; 
• Chancellor Rishi Sunak is drawing up measures to enable businesses to reopen in a ‘safe and practical way’; 
• Councils agreed to reopen 340 parks and green spaces following an intervention by Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick;
• Official figures showed another 684 people in UK hospitals had died of coronavirus, taking the death toll to 19,506; 
• Care home bosses have blamed the sector’s soaring death toll on government guidance telling hospitals to discharge elderly residents to free up beds; 
• The NHS is launching a new campaign to make sure people seek urgent care during a medical emergency after visits to A&E dropped by almost 50 per cent this month;
• Priti Patel will read the riot act to the rule-breakers ignoring the coronavirus lockdown after crowds poured into public places; 
• Labour is criticising the inclusion of Dominic Cummings in a secret group advising the Government on the coronavirus crisis amid concerns political appointees are breathing down the necks of scientists;    
• Low cost airline Wizz Air said it would restart some flights from London’s Luton Airport on May 1

Mr Hammond said it was essential that businesses are told now what requirements they will have to fulfil when the time comes to reopen so they can begin preparing.

‘If we are all going to have to wear face masks travelling on public transport, businesses need to know that now so that businesses that have the capacity to manufacture products like that can start planning to do so,’ he said.

‘If restaurants, when they eventually reopen, are going to have to operate with many fewer tables, they need to start thinking about how they adapt their business model to be able to do that.

‘At the moment, for too many businesses, they just don’t know what the requirements imposed on them are going to look like and therefore what kind of preparations they need to make to think about reopening their businesses.’

The easing of lockdown rules revealed today could allow people to socialise with up to ten of their closest family and friends. 

Close family members could meet for meals, or enable friends to share childcare. It could also allow couples who do not live together to see each other.

In an idea reminiscent of BT’s ‘Friends and Families’ scheme, people would nominate a small list of those they want to be able to see, drawn from no more than one or two households.

Those involved would then be able to meet for meals and other social activities. But neither group would be allowed to mingle with others outside the ‘cluster’. 

Ministers are still grappling with how to enforce the new meeting system and prevent a free-for-all that could allow the coronavirus epidemic to take hold again. 

A Whitehall source said: ‘If we can find a way to allow a bit more flexibility without risking transmission of the disease running higher then we will do it.’ 

Belgium and Scotland are also looking at the idea. 

Britons continue to flout lockdown rules by packing out parks across the UK as temperatures soar, in another sign that the country is seemingly no longer willing to comply with government instructions to stay indoors. 

In the last four weeks, there has been an eight per cent increase in people out and about walking across the UK – breaching strict lockdown policy. 

And a steady increase of traffic on the roads has added to the growing unease in Downing Street that the country is becoming restless under the restrictions to everyday life. 

Jack Cousens, head of roads policy for the AA said: ‘Many drivers are sticking to the Government advice and are only making essential journeys by car, however, this week traffic and breakdowns have crept up. We are concerned that some have got so bored with lockdown that they are seeking a change of scenery by getting in their car. Breakdowns are up around a fifth (20%) this week and traffic is around 10% higher than the beginning of the lockdown.

‘We all need to adhere to the advice and stay at home. One crash can tie up the emergency services for hours and may also result in precious NHS hospital beds being taken. The message is still to stay home and help to save lives. Police forces have also reported some horrendous speeds too and we urge everyone to stick to the limit as a minority of drivers have been treating the roads as race tracks.’

This comes as Boris Johnson is expected to return to Downing Street on Monday to resume work part-time.

The Prime Minister has spent a fortnight at his country retreat, Chequers, after being hospitalised with coronavirus.

Allies warned he is still suffering the ‘debilitating’ effects of the illness, which saw him spend three nights in intensive care.

A source said Mr Johnson was likely to remain ‘part-time for some time’, adding: ‘It will be a while before he is working 14-hour days again.’

Health Secretary Matt Hancock yesterday warned the government would not ease lockdown restrictions until ministers were certain they could prevent a deadly second wave of infection. 

He said this would not be possible until the number of cases was driven ‘right down’. Mr Hancock said he understood the ‘economic pressures’ the lockdown was causing, but warned they would be even worse if the UK suffered a second peak of the epidemic.

He told BBC Radio Four’s Today programme: ‘I understand those voices who are saying we should move sooner but that is not something we are going to do.’

Mr Hancock said the lockdown could not be eased until ministers have the preliminary results of an Office for National Statistics study looking at how widespread the disease is in society. 

Downing Street said it was ‘conceivable’ this could be ready ahead of the May 7 review of the lockdown.

Former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith yesterday said it was time for the government to ‘bite the bullet’ on the issue and set out a plan for easing the lockdown.

‘The UK government now needs to recognise that the time is now,’ he said.

Privately ministers are gloomy about the prospect of any significant easing of the lockdown on May 7, given the need to meet five tests that include a major reduction in the number of cases and security of supply of personal protective equipment.

One insider said: ‘I don’t think anyone thinks we are going to pass the five tests in the next week or two.’ 

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said she is considering relaxing the lockdown rules. 

She said: ‘I know from my own parents who are not seeing their grandkids just know, I understand the anguish of that.

‘We’re all missing seeing our loved ones so we all want to get beyond that as quickly as possible.

‘Every country is going through these decisions, none of us are through this pandemic yet, but some countries are starting to look at slightly expanding what people would define as their household – encouraging people who live alone to maybe match up with somebody else who is on their own or a couple of other people to have almost kind of bubbles of people.’

She added: ‘And the key thing there is, if you’re seeing maybe one or two more people outside your household, it’s got to be the same people on a day-to-day, week-to-week basis so you’re still limiting the ability for the virus to transmit.

‘Now, none of these are fixed decisions yet, but these are all the kind of things we’re trying to work through.

‘What we’re trying to do is to do is, how do we get a semblance of normality back into our lives because the lockdown – it is essential that people stick with it just now – but it’s having consequences of its own.’ 

Unseasonably warm weather has caused many Britons to defy ministers’ instructions and head to parks, beaches and shopping centres in their droves. 

Unseasonably warm weather has caused many Britons to defy ministers’ instructions and head to parks, beaches and shopping centres in their droves. 

This comes as fast-food giants KFC and Burger King, as well as high street coffee chain Pret, gradually reopen stores across the UK. 

In signs of a Government strategy shift, B&Q has been allowed to open 14 stores to trial new social distancing measures.  

Some B&Q stores have resumed trading after the DIY retailer carried out a trial reopening of 14 stores at the weekend, saying it was in a position to ‘follow best practice’ after seeing how other essential retailers have ‘supported social distancing in their stores’.

Police chiefs have repeatedly begged the nation to obey the rules, while one force yesterday branded those flouting the lockdown as ‘selfish’.

However their message has been undermined by their own officers failing to observe social distancing during Thursday’s clap for carers on Westminster Bridge.

Ms Patel will this afternoon use the daily Downing Street press briefing to impress upon the public the seriousness of following the rules. 

A source close to the Home Secretary told the Daily Express: ‘We are seeing a worrying increase in people moving around.

‘Some industries which we did not advise to close are reopening, and we welcome that provided the social distancing rules are observed.

‘The vast majority of the public are still doing the right thing. However, transport use has ticked up in a way that suggests something more is going on and that has set off alarm bells.’

Ministers have come under pressure to publish a road map out of the lockdown, but have so far remained tight-lipped.

The lack of information from Whitehall has jarred with the approach taken in Scotland by Nicola Sturgeon, who published a plan to ease restrictions after promising to treat the public ‘like grown ups’.

At yesterday’s Downing Street press conference, Transport Secretary Grant Shapps praised the British people for largely following the rules.

He said: ‘The country has done incredibly well in adhering to social distancing and there is a danger as we go into yet another warm sunny weekend that people think that perhaps these graphs are showing that the peak is over.

‘It isn’t over, we’re riding perhaps, we hope, a downward trend but it is by no means, no means established yet. When people ask me when will the measures, the social distancing, the stay at home measures, be altered, my answer in some ways is that some of this lies in your own hands.

‘The more we adhere to it and are strict about the social distancing that is required, the faster that decision will be able to be made. But that decision will, of course, be made entirely on the advice of science and medical advice.’

Yet when the lockdown will end is still a focal point in the national conversation, and McDonald’s yesterday mooted re-opening.

The fast food giant, which is already operation again in coronavirus-stricken France, is in talks about opening its 1,249 restaurants across the UK, according to reports.

The burger chain could open for drive-thru and delivery orders as early as mid-May, say the Irish Farmers Journal.

A spokesperson for McDonald’s said: ‘Of course we are thinking about re-opening and having those conversations – but it’s unclear when that will be.’

It comes as people have been pictured packed into busy open-air food markets and parks in London, and Coronavirus tests for key workers through the Government’s new booking website have run out in England and Wales for a second day in a row. 

Low cost airline Wizz Air also said it would restart some flights from London’s Luton Airport on May 1, becoming one of the first European carriers to begin to restore services which have been grounded during the coronavirus pandemic.

Wizz said in a statement on Saturday that cabin crew would wear masks and gloves throughout flights and distribute sanitising wipes to each passenger. Its aircraft would be disinfected overnight, it added.

Flights to several destinations in Romania, plus Budapest in Hungary, Lisbon in Portugal, and Tenerife in Spain would be amongst those to restart, said Wizz.

Millions of key workers miss out on coronavirus test for second day after 19,000 drive-in slots and 5,000 home kits run out within just one hour of site opening today 

By James Wood for MailOnline 

Key workers have spoken of their frustration after places for a coronavirus test ran out within just an hour of the site opening today.

Some 5,000 home kits and 19,000 drive-through tests were expected to be made available on Saturday – with key workers asked to fill out an online application form as the government races to hit its 100,000-a-day testing target by next Thursday.

Many were trying to secure a test for the second time after the government’s new website had to close hours after launching on Friday as 46,000 people tried to access it. 

But within twenty minutes of the website launching this morning, home test kits were no longer available and applicants could only select a drive-through test. 

And within an hour drive-through tests in England had also completely booked up.

Ten million key workers and their households are now eligible for the tests.

Frustrated key workers also struggled to secure one of the kits yesterday. Within two minutes of the website going live at 6am on Friday, all 5,000 tests for people to do at home had been booked.

Meanwhile, more than 15,000 appointments for tests at drive-through centres were also taken quickly, forcing the Department of Health to apologise on Twitter ‘for any inconvenience’ and close applications. 

It comes as the government was forced to admit that no checks will be made on whether those requesting coronavirus tests are genuinely essential workers.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps apologised after the new government website was closed due to ‘significant demand’. 

One man who successfully applied for a drive-in test minutes after the scheme opened told the Guardian ‘any Tom, Dick or Harry’ can get a test.

A spokesman said the government was relying on the public to be honest.

‘As with many aspects of the coronavirus response, we would expect the public to respond in good faith and that is what they have done with other aspects of the scheme and I think we would expect it to be the same here,’ he said.

Mr Shapps yesterday told the daily Downing Street coronavirus press conference that reports the website had crashed were not accurate and it was ‘simply that the slots for today were taken up’.

He insisted the government is confident every key worker who needs a test will soon be able to access one as ministers strive to hit a 100,000 daily tests target by the end of April. 

‘We know what the capacity is, we don’t quite know how many people would want to be tested because many people working for the NHS for example will have already accessed those tests through their work places,’ he said. 

Ministers say that UK testing capacity is currently at 51,000 a day – including tests within the NHS and care homes – and they are hoping to be able to provide 18,000 home test kits by the end of April. 

No 10 said 5,000 home kits – the total on offer – were ordered online this morning. 

Ministers expected another 15,000 tests to take place at drive-through sites today. 

Under the scheme, test results from the drive-through sites will be sent out by text within 48 hours, and within 72 hours of collection of the home delivery tests.  

Separately, key workers who are self-isolating can also now get tested by being referred by their employer through a new portal, which went live at midnight. 

The PM’s spokesman said: ‘Within two minutes of the portal opening this morning, 5,000 testing kits had been ordered. And that’s the available capacity for today.’ 

Number 10 also said the Government is trusting that those applying for tests are key workers, with no eligibility checks in place for online bookings. 

The spokesman said: ‘As with many other aspects of the coronavirus response, we would expect the public to respond in good faith. 

‘That is what they have done with other aspects of the scheme, I think we’d expect it to be the same here.’

Back to work in mid-May? Ministers quietly advise businesses how to get back to work in a few weeks time including creating ‘COVID-secure offices’ with closed communal areas 

The Treasury is planning to ‘get Britain back to work’ in a matter of weeks with new health and safety rules to be enforced in offices, it has been reported.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak has been looking at how to start allowing non-essential businesses to reopen in a ‘safe and practical way’, keeping coronavirus out of shared office spaces.

McDonald’s, British Steel and construction firm Persimmon were among the first high-profile companies to announce their intention to reopen in May, as the daily number of new cases of coronavirus should be in the low thousands by then.

Robert Jenrick, the Housing Secretary, said Persimmon’s decision to reopen sites was ‘another big step forward for housing and construction’.

Car manufacturers Nissan, Aston Martin and Jaguar Land Rover have also said they will reopen their factories with strict safety measures in place following talks with the Government.

Government rules being drafted at the moment are believed to include forcing businesses to put up social distancing notices, close communal space and supply hand sanitising products.

If staff show any symptoms of coronavirus then they should to be told to go home.

Manufacturers BMW, Toyota, JCB and Caterpillar have also been involved in Government talks, with officials suggesting workers wear perspex shields on production lines as their own form of personal protective equipment.

It comes amid claims businesses are being advised by ministers on how to get employees back to work, as it is believed some firms reacted too strongly to the lockdown restrictions imposed in March.

There is growing concern over the extent of the economic impact of the lockdown if companies are not allowed to return in the next weeks.

UK retail sales fell by the most on record in March, according to Office for National Statistics figures. Clothing sales saw the biggest slump of over a third, and overall sales volumes plunged by 5.1 per cent in March from February.

A Downing Street source said: ‘If people are within the rules and follow social distancing guidance, we are more than happy for businesses to resume on that basis.’

Priti Patel to read Britain the riot act: Home Secretary will use today’s press conference to warn ‘selfish rule-breakers’ to stop flouting coronavirus rules as more people venture out of lockdown 

Priti Patel will today scold the rule-breakers ignoring the coronavirus lockdown after scenes of crowds pouring into public places sent alarm bells ringing through government.

The Home Secretary will underscore her warning to stay indoors with the threat of beefing up the police’s powers to enforce social distancing.

Unseasonably warm weather has caused many Britons to defy ministers’ instructions and head to parks, beaches and shopping centres in their droves.

A steady increase of traffic on the roads has also added to the growing unease in Downing Street that the country is becoming restless under the restrictions to everyday life.

Police chiefs have repeatedly begged the nation to obey the rules, while one force yesterday branded those flouting the lockdown as ‘selfish’.

However their message has been undermined by their own officers failing to observe social distancing during Thursday’s clap for carers on Westminster Bridge.

Mr Patel will this afternoon use the daily Downing Street press briefing to impress upon the public the seriousness of following the rules.

The Home Secretary is due to hold the daily press conference in Downing Street at 4pm.

A source close to the Home Secretary told the Daily Express: ‘We are seeing a worrying increase in people moving around.

‘Some industries which we did not advise to close are reopening, and we welcome that provided the social distancing rules are observed.

‘The vast majority of the public are still doing the right thing. However, transport use has ticked up in a way that suggests something more is going on and that has set off alarm bells.’

Ministers have come under pressure to publish a road map out of the lockdown, but have so far remained tight-lipped.

The lack of information from Whitehall has jarred with the approach taken in Scotland by Nicola Sturgeon, who published a plan to ease restrictions after promising to treat the public ‘like grown ups’.

At yesterday’s Downing Street press conference, Transport Secretary Grant Shapps praised the British people for largely following the rules.

He said: ‘The country has done incredibly well in adhering to social distancing and there is a danger as we go into yet another warm sunny weekend that people think that perhaps these graphs are showing that the peak is over.

‘It isn’t over, we’re riding perhaps, we hope, a downward trend but it is by no means, no means established yet. When people ask me when will the measures, the social distancing, the stay at home measures, be altered, my answer in some ways is that some of this lies in your own hands.

‘The more we adhere to it and are strict about the social distancing that is required, the faster that decision will be able to be made. But that decision will, of course, be made entirely on the advice of science and medical advice.’

Care homes bosses blame climbing death toll on ‘reckless stiff broom’ policy to send back hundreds of elderly coronavirus patients to free up hospital beds

By Amie Gordon for MailOnline 

Care home bosses have blamed the sector’s soaring death toll on government guidance telling hospitals to discharge elderly residents to free up beds. 

The chilling warning came in the wake of a government document which advises hospitals, ‘to free up NHS capacity via rapid discharge into the community and reducing planned care.’

The plan, drafted on March 17, told NHS hospitals that ‘timely discharge’ was important – and told care homes to accept patients who had not even been tested for coronavirus.

It has since been updated saying the policy ‘will move’ to patients being tested prior to admission to care homes. 

But residents coming from their own homes do not have to be tested prior to admission. 

The devastating impact on the elderly has been laid bare in recent days, after Care England estimated the number of Covid-19 deaths in care homes reached 7,500 a week ago. 

Questions continue to emerge over the true number of Britons dying in care homes after figures from Northern Ireland yesterday showed a third of all fatalities were elderly residents.  

Last night it was announced another 684 people have died from coronavirus in Britain, taking the total number of fatalities to 19,506. 

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Tuesday 1,000 people died in care homes in the week to 10 April.

The Care Quality Commission (CQC), which regulates care homes in England, has produced preliminary data for April 11-15, suggesting there were a further 1,000 deaths linked to Covid-19.

They also say there may be a significant increase.

New figures are expected to be published on April 28, once they have been verified.

The Adult and Social Care Action Plan adds: ‘Timely discharge is important for individuals so they can recuperate in a setting appropriate for rehabilitation and recovery – and the NHS also needs to discharge people in order to maintain capacity for acutely ill patients.’ 

It was subsequently updated with the following guidance: ‘We can now confirm we will move to institute a policy of testing all residents prior to admission to care homes. 

‘This will begin with all those being discharged from hospital.’ 

But it says people coming from their own homes will not yet be tested prior to admission; ‘For individuals coming from the community, we will move to these residents being tested prior to admission. 

‘The majority will have come from isolation in their own homes given social distancing and shielding policies. 

‘After discussion with the new resident and family, the care home may wish to isolate the new resident for a 14-day period following admission.’

A Whitehall source told the Telegraph that the policy was ‘designed as a ‘stiff broom’ to free up capacity in hospitals.’

Dr Jamie Wilson, founder of Hometouch, which provides care to people in their own homes, told the Telegraph: ‘I’m astonished at the lack of foresight of these policies. 

‘To mandate that care homes should take back Covid-positive patients with such a high risk of cross infection and high mortality rate in vulnerable residents seems unfathomable.’ 

This comes as it was revealed ministers are looking at whether to relax the strict ‘stay at home’ advice to let small groups of households ‘cluster’ together. 

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: ‘Social care is on the frontline of our fight against coronavirus and the safety of staff and residents is our top priority.

‘All care home residents discharged from hospital will be tested before being admitted into their care home. For those who have tested positive, care homes should follow guidance on effective isolation strategies or cohorting and where this isn’t possible alternative accommodation should be found through local authorities for the remainder of their isolation period.

‘To further help control the spread of the virus within social care we have also strengthened our advice around isolation for asymptomatic residents discharged into care homes and are using our increased testing capacity to test all symptomatic care home residents, care staff, and their families.’ 

Cabinet ministers were warned last year to stockpile PPE for a coronavirus pandemic, told it could come in three waves, kill 65,000 people and cost £2.35TRILLION 

By Jack Elsom for MailOnline 

• The National Security Risk Assessment predicted tens of thousands of deaths and spiralling economic costs
• Foreboding the current coronavirus crisis, it recommended stockpiling personal protective equipment 
• The 600-page report will further fuel accusations the government was caught flat-footed by the virus

Ministers were last year warned of the grave consequences a future pandemic would unleash on the UK, a leaked Cabinet Office briefing had revealed. 

Tens of thousands of deaths, crippling economic costs and creaking public services were predicted in the 2019 National Security Risk Assessment which mapped out how an outbreak would likely unfold.

Almost foreboding the current coronavirus crisis, it recommended stockpiling personal protective equipment and drawing up plans to repatriate stranded Britons abroad. 

The government was also told to shore up the infrastructure needed to conduct mass contact tracing, in a revelation that will pour petrol on the simmering row over the lack of testing. 

The 600-page report, which was leaked to the Guardian, will further fuel accusations the government was caught flat-footed by the health emergency because of a lack of long-term planning.

Chief scientific officer Sir Patrick Vallance, one of the key figures steering the Covid-19 response, signed off the report last year and impressed the need for ‘robust’ plans to deal with a pandemic. 

The assessment said a relatively mild outbreak of ‘moderate virulence’ could lead to 65,600 deaths and could cost the UK £2.35trillion.    

It is not clear if Boris Johnson was prime minister when the report was written, or whether it was given to ministers serving the previous administration under Theresa May. 

Labour last night asked why the government had not acted on the advice of the report and demanded ministers explain themselves. 

The bombshell revelations came as Britain braced for its coronavirus death toll to hit the grim 20,000 milestone.  

As the country continues to weather the social and economic effects of the virus, the leaked report revealed: 

• Half the population would exhibit symptoms of the virus, while even more would be infected yet be asymptomatic; 
• The pandemic would unfold over three waves, with each wave lasting roughly 15 weeks;
• Once the pandemic eventually passed, the hit to public services would take years to repair;
• A huge public backlash would skewer a government who were deemed to have bungled the crisis response. 

Labour’s Shadow cabinet office minister Rachel Reeves said: ‘The revelations in this report are alarming and raise serious questions about the Government’s preparedness for a pandemic. 

‘Michael Gove must make a statement to Parliament on Monday explaining why its recommendations were not implemented.’

The document, marked ‘official, sensitive’, wargamed the potential risks posed by a pandemic and made recommendations to bolster Britain’s ability to fight it. 

An ‘influenza pandemic’, which is the closest to the coronavirus outbreak, was judged to pose a ‘very high’ risk. 

One of the recommendations made by Sir Patrick was to ensure a system of ‘disease surveillance and early detection’ – essentially the infrastructure needed for testing and contact tracing – was in place.

But a common criticism levelled at the government is that it downplayed the need for mass testing despite it proving a successful strategy in other countries to suppress the number of cases.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock is now trying to ratchet up capacity with the target of carrying out 100,000 tests a day by the end of April.   

The NSRA also warned a pandemic would heap strain on vital public services which would be overwhelmed in the surge in cases. 

It said: ‘Critical infrastructure may also be affected during peak periods. There would be a huge surge in demand for health and social care services.

‘Besides very severe levels of stress on the NHS, the level of excess deaths would stretch capacity within organisations involved in the management of deaths.

‘This would be felt on a national scale, with local capacity likely to start to be overwhelmed during the peak of the pandemic.’ 

Transport services, energy suppliers, the food industry, education and the finance sector would all be disrupted, the report warned.  

The Cabinet Office declined to comment on the report. A spokesman said: ‘We do not comment on leaks.’ 

According to the Guardian, the NSRA recommendations included stockpiling personal protective equipment, setting up advance purchase agreements for other essential kit and thrashing out a blueprint to manage a surge in deaths.

The need for plans to help British nationals abroad and repatriate them to the UK was also said to have been raised as a priority.

The NSRA looked at both the the risk of a viral flu pandemic and also a coronavirus outbreak – both Sars and Mers were coronaviruses – although this was considered less damaging.

The document included a series of ‘reasonable worst case scenarios’ for the spread of a flu-like viral pandemic.

It suggested it would play out in three waves – each expected to last 15 weeks and with the peak occurring in weeks six and seven of each wave.

Half of the population would be infected and experience symptoms of the disease during one or move of the waves.

While the actual numbers infected would be higher as some cases would be asymptomatic, a pandemic of ‘moderate virulence’ could lead to 65,600 deaths.

The document also spelled out the economic hits landed by the virus, and forecast costs could run to £2.35trillion.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak has already delved deep into the Treasury coffers to fund £320billion in rescue loans, with the costs of shuttered business in lockdown also likely to contract the economy.

Even after the pandemic was over, it said that it could take months or even years for health and social care services to recover.  

Labour fury at Dominic Cummings’ role in secretive SAGE group advising government as shadow health secretary says controversial adviser must not be allowed to influence coronavirus debate

By Emer Scully for Mailonline and Jason Groves for the Daily Mail 

Labour is criticising the inclusion of Boris Johnson’s chief adviser Dominic Cummings in the secret group advising the Government on the coronavirus crisis amid concerns political appointees are breathing down the necks of scientists.   

Shadow Health Secretary Jonathan Ashworth told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme today that Brexit architect Cummings should not be attending meetings.  

Mr Ashworth thundered: ‘The concern is that political advisers have influenced the debate, the way to clear this up is for all the minutes to be published, we’ve called on the Government to do this. When you are dealing with an epidemic like this, you need to take the public with you every step’.

Mr Cummings’ name was on a leaked list of attendees of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies’ (SAGE) meetings as far back as February. 

The list, which was seen by The Guardian, showed Mr Cummings was at a SAGE meeting with 24 others on March 23, the day Prime Minister Boris Johnson addressed the public to announce heightened lockdown measures. 

Mr Cummings was joined by Ben Warner, a data scientist who worked alongside him on the Vote Leave Brexit campaign in 2016, say other members of the group.   

However, Prof Stephen Powis, the National Medical Director of NHS England and a member of SAGE, described SAGE as a ‘forum for scientific discussion’ immune from political influence on Radio 4’s Today programme.

He said: ‘My experience of Sage is that it is a forum for scientific discussion.

‘It is the experts from a variety of backgrounds who discuss the evidence, they discuss the evidence base of the various topics, they come to conclusions around that evidence base. It is then, of course, the role of Sage to advise the Government.

‘I have been confident that what happens at Sage is a scientific discussion involving the scientists and the experts who are members of Sage.

‘Very familiar territory for me – the sort of scientific discussion I have been very, very used to in my career as a doctor and a scientist. 

‘A thorough scientific discussion amongst the experts.’ 

The Government’s former chief scientific adviser Sir David King told The Guardian political advisers were never on the equivalent committees of SAGE when he chaired them.    

While both membership of SAGE and what is discussed during regular meetings has been kept a closely guarded secret, the news sheds uncertainty on the reliability of  decisions that have been made. 

Sir David said he was ‘shocked’ to discover there were political advisers on SAGE.

He added that it was ‘critically important’ scientific advice was free from political influence.  

Sir David Lidington, who served as Theresa May’s deputy, also suggested the practice was unusual. He said: ‘I’m not aware of any minister or special adviser, certainly not in Theresa May’s time, ever having been involved in the scientific advisory panels.’

In a letter to MPs this month, Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government’s chief scientific adviser, who chairs SAGE, said membership was kept secret on advice from the Centre for the Protection of National Infrastructure. 

‘This contributes towards safeguarding individual members’ personal security and protects them from lobbying and other forms of unwanted influence which may hinder their ability to give impartial advice,’ he added.

Chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty, who co-chairs SAGE, has signalled a change in direction, telling MPs that he and Sir Patrick did not oppose publishing the membership.

Asked if revealing members’ names would boost public confidence in the scientific advice being given, he replied: ‘Yes.’

The revelation about Mr Cummings’s participation in the group will add to concerns surrounding decisions by SAGE, which has not published any minutes from its last 19 meetings on the pandemic.

Former members of SAGE were outraged a political fixer was on the committee, as others feared Mr Cummings could have twisted any advice offered during the meetings.

A Government spokesman told MailOnline: ‘Expert participants often vary for each meeting according to which expertise is required. 

‘A number of representatives from government departments and No 10 attend also.’  

Downing Street has said Mr Cummings has attended meetings of SAGE but denied that he was a member. 

In a statement, a No 10 spokesman said: ‘It is not true that Mr Cummings or Dr Warner are ‘on’ or members of Sage. 

‘Mr Cummings and Dr Warner have attended some Sage meetings and listen to some meetings now they are all virtual.

‘They do this in order to understand better the scientific debates concerning this emergency and also to understand better the limits of how science and data can help government decisions.

‘Occasionally they ask questions or offer help when scientists mention problems in Whitehall. 

‘Sage provides independent scientific advice to the government. Political advisers have no role in this.’

It comes just days after Sir Patrick Vallance, the Goverment’s chief scientific adviser and chairman of SAGE, revealed they will not publish key evidence until after the pandemic ends. 

SAGE’s advice to the Government has faced fresh scrutiny over a lack of widespread early testing and resistance to the idea of widespread facemask-use. 

In a letter to the Commons’ Science Committee, Sir Patrick said SAGE met 20 times before the start of April to discuss Covid-19.

‘Sage will commit to informing the Committee in advance when new evidence is due to be published,’ he said.

‘Once Sage stops convening on this emergency the minutes of relevant Sage meetings, supporting documents and the names of participants (with their permission) will be published.’

But MPs criticised the secrecy. Senior Liberal Democrat Layla Moran said: ‘It is incredibly disappointing to hear that the Sage evidence guiding the Government will remain secret.   

‘Only by publishing this evidence can ministers be scrutinised and held to account on their decisions. 

‘The tone and quality of the debate improved dramatically following the publication of the Imperial College modelling, on which decisions were being made.

‘I’m calling on the Government to think again.’

MPs last week called for the cast list of SAGE to be made public so that people can see exactly who ministers are getting their advice from.

The government has rejected the calls, with sources claiming the names cannot be published because of security concerns amid reports of some experts receiving death threats.

But former SAGE members have questioned that argument, insisting it is ‘perfectly reasonable’ for people to know who sits on the committee which Mr Johnson is relying on to guide the government’s response to the outbreak. 

However in his letter to committee chairman Greg Clark, Sir Patrick said: ‘The decision to not disclose SAGE membership for the time being is based upon advice from the Centre for the Protection of National Infrastructure and is in line with the standard procedure for COBR meetings, to which SAGE gives advice.

‘This contributes towards safeguarding individual members personal security and protects them from lobbying and other forms of unwanted influence which may hinder their ability to give impartial advice.’Of course, we do not stop individuals from revealing that they have attended SAGE.’